Robert got quite old since last seeing him. Hope he is well.

@williampflueger174

8 ай бұрын

My thoughts exactly

@linux-stuff5552

4 ай бұрын

Agreed. I love Robert Shiller :) hope he continues to live for many years!

A big percentage of people that own homes are boomers that are retired or in the process of retiring lol. No amount of tightening will work. As a matter of fact, the more they tighten the worse inflation will be because of increased demand for rentals (as no one can afford mortgages now).

@user-ob4em4ge6c

7 ай бұрын

To bad home values have been declining, nationally, for months.

A.I. Speculative Ultra Housing Bubble! Finally, a non koolaid drinker!

oh well - this is how NOT to interview a Nobel Prize Laureate!!

Housing will be the last shoe to drop. You can't have 500 basis points of tightening and no move in housing; it's going to come.

@chrisginoc

8 ай бұрын

There isn't enough supply for the demand. I'm not saying prices will be flat or go higher, but don't expect a shoe drop unless there is a black swan. Now if mortgage rates get to 8%+ then that's a different story. Any shoe "dropping" would be small pullback in 2024 or 2025.

@nukm4

8 ай бұрын

@@chrisginoc There's no supply because no one is selling, not because there's magically too few houses all of a sudden. Once people start selling, the market will fall significantly. It probably won't be a collapse, but it won't be small.

@chrisginoc

8 ай бұрын

@@nukm4 Exactly. Nobody is selling because interest rates are too high. A black swan event is needed for people to lose their jobs and be forced to sell or walk away from their homes. Too much supply flooding the market will cause prices to fall dramatically. This shoe dropping is unemployment skyrocketing in 2024, a covid world like shut down event, etc. All the shoe dropper people were saying prices would drop in 2022 and 2023 as the FED tightened and there are still buyers right now (obviously not every single house has 7+ offers) even with a 7.5% mortgage rate. I think the catalyst would be if inflation creeps up again the next 8-10 months and if mortgage rates get to 8-10% that will big prices down. 8% seems to be the magic threshold. So far we've stayed under it, but only time will tell. I personally think the FED accidentally saved housing because of so many homeowners having under 4% mortgage rates locked for 30 years. They can go work fast food or basic salary jobs and still pay the mortgage. This isn't 2007-2008 when people had Negam loans or ARMs that adjusted after 1 year with no cap. Major unemployment is your black swan event.

@nukm4

8 ай бұрын

@chrisginoc A black swan event is not needed. Also, just because you learned the phrase "black swan event", you don't have to go around using it all the time. People get divorced. People get married. People have kids. People's kids move out. People move cities for new jobs. People lose their jobs. All reasons why someone would sell their house despite the change in mortgage rate, and none of them is a black swan event.

@nukm4

8 ай бұрын

@chrisginoc OH God, I just bothered to finish your comment. You don't even know what a black swan event is, like you haven't even read the Wikipedia page. We've seen periods of high unemployment before, recently even. By definition, that's not a black swan event. Christ, at least learn what the term means before using it.

Glad you are well. Robert shiller. Good luck.

That is horrible 😢 and bad

the jack bogle of economics........god bless

Time for your nap

going down baby!!

Stagflation …. 😂😂😂😂😂

I pity first time home buyers. they have to save a lot for a one bedroom condo. Its sad,. But I think thats what we as a society want, to crush the dreams of young home buyers. way to go boomers., I know you are all laughing 🤣

@rd24life

6 ай бұрын

Yeah, the youth have been screwed over. It is a disgrace.

@Jose-sy1je

5 ай бұрын

I wanted to buy in 2020 but got priced out by all these buyers. Then I decided to wait it out bc I figured how much more could it go up. Now homes are up 50% and I realize that buying a home will never happen. Rents are also up, so it's hard to save. They basically bailed out the asset owning class in 2020 whose houses would have collapsed in value otherwise.

War's back. Real estate investors are saved then. haha Shiller is the best. (not laughing about war. laughing about how incredibly competent he is) Seller holding the line but this NAR this maybe did something to their shield wall. This is not honest diaglog commentary and not 'manipulation' and i reserve the right to participate in any legal market i can access.