BULLS Spurred On By Dovish Fed & Weak Jobs Numbers | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis
Rob Roy's Elliott Wave analysis for Stock, Crypto & Option Traders highlights the recent Fed meeting and comments made by Chairman Powell, suggesting a potential easing policy. This combined with weaker than expected jobs numbers say the markets gap higher at the end of this week. Rob also shows his analysis of various markets, including S&P, DIA, Qs, and IWM, show consolidation and symmetrical triangle patterns. Stocks covered include stocks like Tesla, Meta, Coin and USO.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Intro
00:49 - US Market Update
03:18 - SPY
06:29 - DIA
07:00 - QQQ
07:41 - IWM
08:28 - US Dollar
09:30 - TNX
10:49 - TSLA
13:21 - USO
17:16 - IBRX
18:43 - PYPL
20:28 - AMD
21:45 - META
23:20 - COIN
24:50 - SLV
26:42 - TradeFinder
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Пікірлер: 116
Love the learnings I gotten (and continue to get) from Rob and Jeff!!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comments and the post!
I was one of the Tesla sellers after being a long time holder - interested to understand more about this Elliot wave thing
I consider myself lucky to have come across EWO! Thanks for sharing your years of knowledge and wisdom!
@robroy3343
29 күн бұрын
Thanks for the post!
thanks a lot for AMD Rob...I really appreciate it
Great analysis Rob! On the bear side, the volume wasn't great, we didn't close at the highs or above the 50 SMA, but on the bull side, we're back above the 20 SMA and we have higher lows, higher highs, and we broke through the downtrend lines so I'll take the long side on the retest of the triangle or the 20 SMA and stop out if it keeps going down. The only thing that I know for sure is I can't always be right on direction, but I can always know at what price I'm wrong and be humble enough not to fight the tape. Safe travels!
Been watching your analysis for awhile now and the charts a simple/uncluttered. You must be making heaps. Thanks Well Done Son#
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comments and the post! I do believe that we can get paralysis through analysis if we try to get too technical.
Superb analysis, Rob! Thanks much!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment and the post!
Thanks so much for your sharing and great analysis! It's very useful !
Great work Rob!
Man I love the late fridayyy videos.
The Chuck Norris of market analysis!
@robroy3343
29 күн бұрын
Lol, always love the Chuck comments! Thanks for the post!
Thanks so much for your sharing and great analysis! Rob, Have a great weekend.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comments and the post and have a great weekend as well!
Thanks Rob, I try to use Elliot Wave on all charts I look at so I can spot the change in direction and confirm it.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Awesome stuff! Thanks for the post!
Once again, great analysis Rob!
Love this channel
Thanks again for the market update.
Great review as always
great analysis as usual.
Superb overview as always - thanks!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment and the post!
Man I love your videos!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
I appreciate that, thanks for the post!
Thanks for your analysis and thoughts.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment and the post!
Really appreciate your analysis and ability to break down the patterns for a novice like myself.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
I appreciate the comment as that's my goal.......I try to remember how confusing everything was when I first started. Thanks for the post!
A better weekend than last LOL. Looking forward to Monday markets.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Yea, it would be nice to see a confirmed directional breakout. I don't care which direction, I just like directional trading! Thanks for the post!
Thanks Rob for sharing your knowledge insights in EW. Looking forward to a session without the hat, though not sure it would be the same!
Hi, I am also in my time capsule in Florida, lol - I am also using Hubb EW for SPY. Under the 2 hour time frame I am only getting a path to the lower side towards 485-490 for SPY by the end of May then up later in the summer. How do you get 2 paths showing up at the same time? Please explain, thanks. Even when I use the 1 day I do not get 2 paths. Would send you a screen shot but you tube does not let me.
Thanks for the video. Always look forward to friday recap. SLV looks like a very good risk to reward
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Agreed on SLV. Thanks for the comment and the post!
Great analysis. Amazing how bullish it all is.
Thanks, once again!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks again for the post!
Rob, thanks for the update on COIN.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
My pleasure, thanks for the post!
Another great session
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for the post!
Thx for showing slv, the ratios favor gold metal instead of stocks for now from what I understand
Does the doji candle that was formed on top on the daily chart mean anything? The daily candle opened close to where it closed. It looks like it’s forming a bearish flag pattern.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
As I'm sure you are aware, nothing is 100%, but that doji on Friday's trade certainly implies that there is indecision on Friday's breakout. That's another reason why I think Monday's trade will be important.....does the market follow through on the upside breakout or was that just a headfake? Thanks for the post!
Great video.. I had be dragging my feet learning EWT proper and getting hubb and your videos. Would have helped for tsla as I'm heavy and I decided to hedge collar (which hurt) , would have instead doubled my position. During after hours or days after for tsla.
Sooooo Goooood!!!! 😍🤑
When you mention that if a wave 5 does not go 100% then it should be expected to retrace to the previous 4, are you referring to 100% of the wave 1?
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
No, the Wave 5 extensions are measured against the length of Wave 3. Thanks for the post!
where do i register sir ? Tks
What's the case for small caps to go lower? I mean don't they benefit the most from the higher probability of rate cuts?
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
A lot of people view the small caps as a gauge of the risk tolerance of traders in general.. If the Russell breaks down through support, it would imply that the market is still in "risk off" mode. Thanks for the post!
Does Elliott work well in tandem with Wyckoff? It looks like we might be mid-way through a multi year distribution/top. Wondering if Elliott accounts for these effects
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
I believe that no one should focus solely on any one indicator, even EW, but applying other confirming indicators simply improves the overall probabilities. I don't use Wyckoff myself, but I think a combination of the two makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the post!
We may see a dip on the Buffett aapl news and the jobs report this week but 495 was a great long to 540 with a trailing SL. if we see 505ish this week would be another great opp to go long into Memorial weekend. Then the whole run from Oct is over.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for your detailed take and the post!
Do you do NQ Rut ES NKD? (Futures)
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Yes, I have those on my intra day charts that I watch each day. Thanks for the post!
Thanks Rob for PayPal update.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
My pleasure, thanks for watching and the post!
Thanks for the first 141 days of trading with EWO trades. Next 5 weeks I likely will join less because I am traveling to Indonesia and Vietman paid by the profits of the first 110 days. The last 30 days have been less profitable but overall still very much in the green. I will take a drink on the Bali beach resorts paid by EWO trades. !!!.. And will send you guys a picture when i am at the BROMO vulcane..
Suggestion: Maybe you can add one currency such as Euro or JPY? Thanks.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Agreed, I intended on adding in the JPY this week, the Yen has certainly been on the move......it will be in next week's video, there's only so much time in each video without making them too long. Thanks for the post!
Absolutely moving higher. Crazy that every time we have a healthy pullback every screams world is ending lol.
Awesome
It is great the way there is a mathematical organization to the markets…PHI is awesome
Tell me why since October 2023 with strong NFP market went up
Neither semis or financials are showing weakness that would suggest moving lower. So I think most of next week the markets will travel east-northeast direction.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Thanks for your take and the post!
Thoughts on TSLA moving down to fill the recent gap ups?
@willaerley7140
Ай бұрын
I think it’s inevitable, but it might not happen for a few months. Tesla trades on hype and speculation. Last year, a huge number of calls were being bought and that’s why Tesla would get dumped on earnings. This time, it was puts before earnings and so everyone who sold short had to buy even though earnings sucked.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
As Will pointed out below, the sentiment on TSLA had gotten decidedly bearish going into earnings. When the majority is on one side of a trade, the market often goes the opposite way. I do believe the gap lower on TSLA will get filled, but if some how some way TSLA breaks above 200, that thesis would be put off for a while. Thanks for the post!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
@@willaerley7140 Agreed and thanks for the post!
get me in the drawing!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
LOL, you are! Thanks for the post!
Weird that the market (SPY) seems to have disregarded the fact that it's supposed to be in a wave 4. I really was being patient and waiting for the pullback. Was going to go in big at around 480. 🤦🏻♂️
@goldguilder9554
Ай бұрын
No wave 4 was invalidated
@goldguilder9554
Ай бұрын
You sell 480 SPY put to leg in but then u can collect premium
@stevehettinger7709
Ай бұрын
@goldguilder9554 I need to learn how to do that. I am really a slow learners when it comes to trading. I wait for big opportunities then buy leveraged shares like SQQQ or TQQQ. I still have yet to learn options. Thanks tho.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
It's not uncommon for their to be a corrective pattern in a Wave 4. The rule of alternation says that either Wave 2 or Wave 4 will be complex. If we get further upside confirmation next week, the Wave 4 will be complete.....since that is still in doubt, the Wave 4 is still considered current. Thanks for the post!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
@@goldguilder9554 Thanks for your take. I don't believe Wave 4 is invalidated, but it might be complete. See my comments above. Thanks for the post!
ULTA, GPN, INMD
Chair Powell just opened up the Fed put. Next up, Apr. CPI/PPI.
Dude if you get an extra second could you throw nividia on that list? It's a volatile stock that gives alot of movement/opportunity to make money.
I'm not a believer that opposing views make markets since we do not have peer to peer trading with clearing houses who knows what goes on there naked shorts spoofing etc imo
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
I appreciate your take, but I respectfully disagree. Thanks for the post!
Katie Bar the Doors!...😅
Wouldn't a pivot be a political move, so it goes against their claim to be "apolitical". Just like the 2019/2020 rally, I suspect only some external "Black Swan" will prevent the normal float higher in an election year.
It is true that you need a buyer and a seller to have a market, but we don't have a market. We have a stock exchange connected to a government money printer 😆
uso should hold at 75
GDX is in a triangle
Uber? TLT?
Maybe fed pivot because they see economy weakening but yes also political lol
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Agreed. Thanks for your take and the post!
👍💯☝️👏👊💪🙏
Buy back rally is not sustainable…
@willaerley7140
Ай бұрын
Buy backs at Apple PE of 28 is just dumb. They’ll do anything to look like they have some earnings growth.
@DD-bh3gh
Ай бұрын
@@willaerley7140 uncle Warren dump 13% run for the hills….😂😂😂
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
Agreed, but if they can shrink the supply enough, there are so many people that have loved that stock over the years, that could theoretically work the supply - demand curve. We shall see. I think it will take more than one buyback however......AAPL sales are clearly weakening.......maybe one day they will actually come out with a new innovative product! Thanks for your take and the post!
@DD-bh3gh
Ай бұрын
@@robroy3343 uncle Warren off loaded 13%… will be interesting
If the market is supposed to be forward looking (6 months), and the fed is telling you theyre going to cut rates, then why will tnx go back up to 5% over the next 1-2 months
@willaerley7140
Ай бұрын
The potential Fed cuts are to the short term overnight rate. The 10 year yield should normally be above that short term rate; currently 5.5%.
@dudewheresmyguitar21
Ай бұрын
@@willaerley7140 yes but when they cut all rates follow downward
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
To add to what Will wrote, with the inflationary drop leveling off, there were fears of the Fed "raising" rates again. Then Powell made those comments that seem to reverse course from his previous remarks. I think that stopped the TNX from moving to the next fig level......at least for now. I'll be watching this week to see if rates start coming back down. Slowing the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet actually is a form of "easing." Thanks for the post!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
@@willaerley7140 Agreed and thanks for the post!
TSLA is not a growing company any more, it cannot trade higher than $199.
@willaerley7140
Ай бұрын
It can. It shouldn’t, though. When Elon tweets, his minions follow.
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
I agree on the first part of your take, but anything is "possible." Thanks for the post!
@robroy3343
Ай бұрын
@@willaerley7140 Agreed. Thanks for the post!
@hdevrede
Ай бұрын
Lol
The color of Independence is better than blatant political power. ( Trump's plan to oversee any rate changes ) My humble offer.