a nice expected value problem

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Пікірлер: 71

  • @coreyyanofsky
    @coreyyanofsky10 күн бұрын

    0:45 "you take the sum of 2 you get 2 which is less than 2" learning new things on this channel every day!😆😆😆

  • @zakariachoukri2037

    @zakariachoukri2037

    10 күн бұрын

    I think he meant to say "not greater" :p

  • @user-wu7ug4ly3v

    @user-wu7ug4ly3v

    10 күн бұрын

    @@zakariachoukri2037 “if you don’t say what you mean, you will not mean what you say”. 😉. Like if you know the source of the quote.

  • @aadfg0

    @aadfg0

    10 күн бұрын

    @@user-wu7ug4ly3v Few understand

  • @zakariachoukri2037

    @zakariachoukri2037

    9 күн бұрын

    @@user-wu7ug4ly3v I actually don't know the source, but chatgpt says it's joseph campbell. Is it ?

  • @siarya_math

    @siarya_math

    8 күн бұрын

    It reminded me of a KZreadr said “half of 2 is 2"

  • @udic01
    @udic0110 күн бұрын

    The question is not defined properly. You need to add "with repetitions"

  • @Kualinar

    @Kualinar

    10 күн бұрын

    Need to also add «RANDOMLY selected with repetition»

  • @TedHopp

    @TedHopp

    9 күн бұрын

    ​@@Kualinar Actually, you need to say "with equal probability" or "uniformly at random" or words to that effect.

  • @koenth2359
    @koenth235910 күн бұрын

    Actually said that 2 is less than 2 lol

  • @jan.kowalski

    @jan.kowalski

    10 күн бұрын

    2 chickens are less than 2 cows.

  • @briandennehy6380

    @briandennehy6380

    9 күн бұрын

    Shut your mouth you

  • @EqSlay

    @EqSlay

    7 күн бұрын

    2 < 1 for extremely large values of 1.

  • @glenneric1

    @glenneric1

    6 күн бұрын

    ​@@EqSlay😂

  • @romajimamulo
    @romajimamulo10 күн бұрын

    What if you picked unique numbers each time, as I thought you meant? Do you get a nice number out of that?

  • @michaelmurphy8849
    @michaelmurphy884910 күн бұрын

    This is very similar to "Sample numbers from the uniform distribution U(0,1) until the sum exceeds 1. How many samples are expected?" You can obtain e by using the Taylor series expansion and knowing that the volume of the n-dimensional unit simplex is 1/n!. Then you can transform this result to his problem by showing that in the limit they are nearly equivalent.

  • @Kualinar
    @Kualinar10 күн бұрын

    The exact wording from the thumbnail is : «How many element of {1,2....,n} until their sum is expected to be greater than n». The question NEVER imply any choice. It imply straight summation of elements. So, according to the original question, the answer it 2, as 1 + 2 = 3, and 3 > 2. In the video, this get changed to «chosen» without stating that any single value can be chosen more than once. This changes again later on.

  • @looney1023
    @looney102310 күн бұрын

    The wording of this question makes it far more difficult than it should be to actually solve, in my opinion.

  • @DeanCalhoun
    @DeanCalhoun10 күн бұрын

    e appears from nowhere at the end, brilliant

  • @txikitofandango
    @txikitofandango10 күн бұрын

    How did you know that the problem didn't mean that you're choosing a random subset of the original set?

  • @Rodhern

    @Rodhern

    8 күн бұрын

    That would be a more obvious way to read it to me, too.

  • @sylvainesteve5222
    @sylvainesteve522210 күн бұрын

    Did not understand the question…

  • @brunocaf8656
    @brunocaf865610 күн бұрын

    The problem is very poorly stated and is in fact different from what the thumbnail says. A different interpretation arises from that, for which the solution would be k = \ceil{2n/(n+1)}, which converges to 2 for large enough n. Incoherent thumbnails is a frequent problem in this channel.

  • @MK_Search

    @MK_Search

    7 күн бұрын

    If the entire problem is visible in the thumbnail, people can just try to solve it and leave without clicking on the video. This hurts the channel analytics and thus growth. It definitely can be irritating, but I see why they make the thumbnails a bit ambiguous. Just giving you the main idea of the problem without all the details. That way to see more you have to click on the video.

  • @forcelifeforce

    @forcelifeforce

    3 күн бұрын

    @@MK_Search -- *No, do not mislead in the thumbnails!* Stop making excuses for Michael Penn!

  • @writerightmathnation9481
    @writerightmathnation948110 күн бұрын

    The set {1,2} has only two elements, so the largest number of elements anyone can choose from this set is 2, so the expected value you seek cannot be more than 2. Michael, your solution doesn’t apply to the stated problem. Thus us the trouble with starting problems non-rigorously. It’s easy to misinterpret it mathematically. A better way to state the problem you solved is the following: “What is the expected length of a sequence of elements from the set {1, …, n} so that the sum of the sequence is a than n?” I realize that the difference may be thought to be subtle, ands accordingly, I’ll likely be called a pedant, but some students go watch might take a class from someone as pedantic as an I and lose points on an exam because they misinterpret questions this way. To drive the point home, and at the risk of appearing even more pedantic, let me restate the original problem to have the same meaning as the original problem but in a more rigorous manner: “What is the expected cardinality of a subset of the set {1, …, n} whose sum is greater than n?” For this problem, the answer, as I mentioned above, cannot be larger than n.

  • @richardsandmeyer4431

    @richardsandmeyer4431

    10 күн бұрын

    Yes, the original statement of the problem fails to clarify whether the same element can be used more than once in the sum. Obviously from the way Michael gave the example and the way he solved the problem he intended to allow reuse of the elements. An interesting follow-up question would be the similar problem but without allowing any element to be used more than once (i.e., "without replacement" in the language of intro probability problems). I think the limit would still be e, but the expression for the expected value would differ.

  • @bungaIowbill
    @bungaIowbill3 күн бұрын

    "Repeatedly roll a fair n-sided die until the sum of the rolls exceeds n. What is the expected number of rolls?" Would give a more precise formulation without complicating things

  • @edvardasmekauskas5491
    @edvardasmekauskas54917 күн бұрын

    At uni level, "strictly less than" means '

  • @nadavslotky
    @nadavslotky10 күн бұрын

    Actually, in the context of applied probability it is a well known fact that for ANY random variable X whose support is a subset of the natural numbers, E[X] = sum over k=1 to infinity of P(X≥k). The proof follows from writing P(X≥k) as a sum from j=k to infinity of P(X=j) and swapping the sums. Now, in this problem the support is finite, so you can truncate the sum at n, and you get your result.

  • @farfa2937
    @farfa293710 күн бұрын

    I’d argue the answer is 2, since there’s no mention that they have to be chosen randomly. Just pick n and n-1 always.

  • @NotKyleChicago
    @NotKyleChicago8 күн бұрын

    Sum means two or more numbers, so choosing only one is not allowed

  • @e.d.8924
    @e.d.892410 күн бұрын

    Wouldn't it be better to phrase the problem as: "What is the expected value of the *minimal* number of elements from {1,2,...,n} that *can* be chosen (with the probability of choosing any element equals to the probability of choosing any other element) so that their sum is greater than n?"

  • @theEx0du5
    @theEx0du510 күн бұрын

    This is definitely a non-formal (i.e. non-mathematical) question, resting on the interpretation of words that are not properly operationalized. It gets turned into a formal question in the video, but the choice of interpretation for the word "chosen" (that you can choose the same number more than once) does not match the "choose" operation typically used in combinatorics, which is the field this question rests in, so they are relying on people going to informal language and taking a different "common" meaning. These types of tests should always be called out, as their lack of a true mathematical / formal approach without fudging is one of the reasons people struggle with mathematics, and they aren't testing what they think they are.

  • @AntoshaPushkin

    @AntoshaPushkin

    10 күн бұрын

    I assume Michael tried to word it so that it is easy to understand, but he made it ambiguous in the process. Most likely the original statement was rigorous enough, but it was wordy

  • @Demo-critus
    @Demo-critus10 күн бұрын

    In the Dali numbers, two is less than two.

  • @knivesoutcatchdamouse2137
    @knivesoutcatchdamouse213710 күн бұрын

    2 < 2

  • @NotKyleChicago
    @NotKyleChicago8 күн бұрын

    If you have selected 1 already, how can you select it again?

  • @wolfmanjacksaid
    @wolfmanjacksaid9 күн бұрын

    Almost 300k subscribers!!! 🎉🎉🎉

  • @eveeeon341
    @eveeeon34110 күн бұрын

    Just casually dropping in e at the end there.

  • @frisbeege8
    @frisbeege89 күн бұрын

    Looked at the thumbnail and thought, "that's probably going to spit out an e." That's a rewarding feeling! The criticism of the thumbnail is valid, though the infinite result would be the same. Interesting problem!

  • @martindedek2885
    @martindedek288510 күн бұрын

    I wondered what if the sum needed to be larger OR EQUAL to n and I reached (1+1/n)^(n-1). Is it correct? Because interestingly, if so, it is e as well when it goes to infinity

  • @AntoshaPushkin
    @AntoshaPushkin10 күн бұрын

    A very interesting problem, it's the one which is easy to follow, but it'd be very hard to come up with a solution

  • @jan.kowalski
    @jan.kowalski10 күн бұрын

    Wanted to add a snarky comment during calculations "waiting for the sudden emergence of e or pi" and in the last seconds of the material - here we are! You snarked me XD

  • @daraocallarain1529
    @daraocallarain152910 күн бұрын

    Amazing

  • @alielhajj7769
    @alielhajj776910 күн бұрын

    e had no business appearing at the end, my eyes popped the moment I saw that 1+1/n to the n term

  • 9 күн бұрын

    Since when 2 less than 2?

  • @hassanalihusseini1717
    @hassanalihusseini17177 күн бұрын

    Interesting! But honestly I did not get the meaning what it is about when I only red the text.

  • @goodplacetostop2973
    @goodplacetostop297310 күн бұрын

    16:24

  • @abioolayoyledegil8698
    @abioolayoyledegil869810 күн бұрын

    Yesterday i saw Dr Sean's video about 5 different complexities of e,and when i saw this i was fascinated e appeared in seemingly unexpected problem.Great to see in depth explanation, mind blowing stuff

  • @kamilkowalski7445
    @kamilkowalski74459 күн бұрын

    Why in example it's 1xP(1) + 2xP(2) + 3xP(3) instead of P(1) + P(2)+P(3)? 2:45

  • @r.maelstrom4810

    @r.maelstrom4810

    5 күн бұрын

    That is the probabilty you need to achieve a sum greater than 2 if you choose 1 element OR 2 elements OR 3 elements. The expected value E[X] is the mean of the number of elements you need to choose, and it is a wheighted mean (the wheights being their respective probabilities).

  • @Ojasvi-dr7yb
    @Ojasvi-dr7yb10 күн бұрын

    I really wanted to know a rigourous definition of a tangent, my teachers say its a line which passes through a single point on a curve without intersecting then I ask them how to define intersection rigourously and they have no answer, some people give me the calculus definition but I already know it and its not a satisfactory answer to my question

  • @TheEpicProOfMinecraf

    @TheEpicProOfMinecraf

    10 күн бұрын

    Assume there is a function f(x). A line L(x), which is a linear function with constant slope, is tangent to f(x) at some point x_0 if L(x_0)=f(x_0) and there is some neighborhood (a,b) about x_0 such that for y in (a,b) where y is not x_0 it is the case that L(y)=f(y). There also has to be a condition on f(x_0) relating to its derivative, but I think this helps establish a baseline on the tangent line.

  • @garrettthompson3286

    @garrettthompson3286

    10 күн бұрын

    Perhaps if you know multivariable calculus you can look at tangent vectors/tangent planes/curvature to get something that generalizes to higher dimensions?

  • @landsgevaer

    @landsgevaer

    10 күн бұрын

    I don't think that definition is correct. The x-axis is tangent to the curve y=x³. Is wikipedia on "tangent" not satisfactory? "More precisely, a straight line is tangent to the curve y = f(x) at a point x = c if the line passes through the point (c, f(c)) on the curve and has slope f'(c), where f' is the derivative of f."

  • @LookAsLukas

    @LookAsLukas

    10 күн бұрын

    I would say, that a tangent line to a curve is a line such that they share only one point and all other points of this curve lie to one side of a tangent

  • @galoomba5559

    @galoomba5559

    10 күн бұрын

    @@LookAsLukas But that's not true, a curve is allowed to cross its tangent line, or you could even have a curve in 3 or more dimensions where "one side of a line" is meaningless

  • @franksaved3893
    @franksaved389310 күн бұрын

    Minute 4:30 and i didn't understand a fuk

  • @thomashoffmann8857

    @thomashoffmann8857

    10 күн бұрын

    The idea is to create a sequence out of the numbers 1 to N. Like 4,5,7,4,7,1,... If the sum should be bigger than n, you need at most n+1 elements (1+1+1...+1)

  • @Gorilatar
    @Gorilatar9 күн бұрын

    Hi Michael Penn! For a nice little physics problem I have derived a very difficult differential equation: x' '(t)=(g*a/l^2*b)*sqrt(l^2*x^2-x^4). I have tried to solve it using wolframalpha but it didn't solve it so if you can solve it it would be very nice. Best regards!