Most car companies arent even in the business of selling cars, theyre a finance company that sells expensive loans.

@noahway13

Жыл бұрын

Airlines don't rely on plane rides.

@mr.monitor.

Жыл бұрын

​@@noahway13 actually they do.

@BA-gn3qb

Жыл бұрын

Especially GMAC.

@HermanWillems

Жыл бұрын

how so? Here everybody buys their cars cash at least those i know. I mean i bought my Tesla Model 3 RWD with cash money. Why can't people just save money?

@mr.monitor.

Жыл бұрын

@Aerism because we have banks and data that shows most people finance cars.

China released its final rule for vehicle emission limits in December 2016 based on the best practices from European and US regulatory requirements. The car manufacturers had almost seven years to prepare to meet the new standards and can't blame the Chinese government if they failed.

@richard--s

Жыл бұрын

The car manufacturers are used to make their country remove the restrictions. It has always worked. Until it doesn't!

@hillwalker8741

Жыл бұрын

@@richard--s sure looks like it will happen again - too much to bail out

@vilester

Жыл бұрын

Just means they can’t compete so bye bye. China not like the US where bad companies are too big to fail.

@markuc

Жыл бұрын

Unlike the west where the government serves special interests, in china it serves the greater good of the people

@LinuxGalore

Жыл бұрын

I have been working with OEM electronics suppliers in China for 35 years, even way back in the early 2000s the Chinese were already implementing restrictions on new electronics products to reduce emissions. So much so that even when western countries started implementing restrictions on power efficiency in consumer products, none of our products needed to be updated.

I live in China, I’m originally from the uk. I own a Chinese brand car … Geely…. I have to say I have noticed the rise in popularity of Tesla and BYD. This is a fascinating topic and I am so happy I have found your channel. Keep up the good work sir.

@artlowe4198

9 ай бұрын

lol, yes, but the communist government of China is banning them in cities and other places, cause ... kzread.info/dash/bejne/l3eut5d7dpCXYZM.html

@davidboatman925

3 ай бұрын

Wall Street.

Yeah, the OEMs had the opportunity to listen, and change. Just because they dragged their feet for 7 years, and ignored the new emission standards announced in 2016, does not make the CCP the instigator of this disaster. That being said, your channel is the only place where this news is breaking. Thank you so much Sam.

@danielch6662

Жыл бұрын

I'm disappointed that Sam is now suddenly pushing this anti-China garbage. He himself has been telling us for months that it's the legacy auto-makers own damned faults that they didn't make EVs before Tesla gained such a huge lead. He's been telling us for as long as I can remember about BYD, Nio, and so many other EV makers in China, about how crazy intense the competition in China's car market is. There is no reason to think China has some secret evil plan to kill foreign car makers. The same car makers are dying in their own home market. Sam himself has been telling us. Yes, it's going to be a bloodbath in China. The CCP is just going to stand back, and let the free market work. Bailing out the workers, but letting shareholders and companies take the brunt of it. You know, like how the free market is supposed to work. I can't believe it is the communists who be the ones to figure this out. 🤦‍♂️

@hmin5927

Жыл бұрын

Absolutely correct. The European car manufacturers often get a nod and wink from their own governments and thought they did not need to do anything in China. They can't complain.

@MineFullStop

Жыл бұрын

The Germans are going to be the worst off..

@mikec886

Жыл бұрын

So true

@conglin6965

11 ай бұрын

Yeah they had 7 years to donsomething instead of just taking profit. Yes Elon was right but yes we all saw what was coming. Weak US and Europeans manufacturers are weak and we knew it…

Sam, the July deadline for implementation Euro 7 in China is something only you were calling out for months. I saw it nowhere else. Top analysis, top work fella.

@icosthop9998

Жыл бұрын

Yes I was chuckling at Sam mentioning time and time again about the Legacy Auto Companies going out of business. But Sam was on top of something I did not have all the in depth knowledge of. Look at the Dire Straits the #Jaguar company is in. Plus GM about to get another 2.5 Bailout from the American government. Amazon is down sizing, laying out thousands of their employees worldwide. Along with Amazon canceling their thousands of RiVian van orders. #Toyota not coming close to the year on year sales of last year. Ford trucks (Ford's best selling vehicle)sitting on the #StealerShips Lots and not moving. ect.

@audience2

Жыл бұрын

Still haven't seen another Tesla pundit comment on this even though it will be highly relevant to Q2 sales figures.

@MaximGhost

Жыл бұрын

@@audience2 I haven't seen any of the other Tesla channels cover EV activities in China. Not sure why since China is now the largest EV consumer market in the world.

@DonBrowningRacing

Жыл бұрын

@@audience2 tesla is doing very well in china!

@americanrambler4972

Жыл бұрын

Sandy Monroe has been clanging the alarm bell on the serious rise of Chinese electric car and battery makers for some time now. He is doing it from the manufacturing and technology side, because they are going to own the production technology side of the business.

I tried to find source for these numbers, 2500 dealers bankrupt, 80% did not make profit etc. Unfortunately I did not find anything. Where did you found those numbers? It would very interesting to see more precisely behind those numbers.

Tesla fired the first two shots in price cut. As a result, Chinese electric automakers responded likewise, and it impacted on legacy carmakers (with Chinese joint venture partners) where their stocks are piling up. Car buyers are now in a price galore as every carmaker is trying to woo them using extreme price cut. Only the strongest will survive.

@gaoxiaen1

Жыл бұрын

Only the one with the best CCP connections will survive. Maybe.

@arminius6506

Жыл бұрын

@@gaoxiaen1 CCP closed down hundred thousand state owned countries. If you aren't competitive than CCP won't help you even if you are one of their own

@user-hc5cg3jc3i

Жыл бұрын

@@gaoxiaen1 我笑死，1450塔绿班殖人轮子😂

@mmark300

Жыл бұрын

Pretty sure this channel said that tesla did not fire the first shot with price reductions. They were just more widely reported.

@simon6071

Жыл бұрын

The price of oil has gone negative for a short time at the onset of the COVID pandemic. I wonder if it possible for the prices of new cars to go negative for a short time during the collapse of the auto industry.

Thanks for the coverage Sam. The impact of the decline in the ICE vehicle market will also lead to the demise of millions of car repair and maintenance firms. This has flow on effects for industrial property as well. There is not much being written about this.

@Backyard_Motorsports

Жыл бұрын

Exactly, I’ve seen very few articles on this. I personally work in this industry and can say there isn’t much you can do with a Tesla, they won’t sell the parts.

@420247paul

Жыл бұрын

@@Backyard_Motorsports because those cars aint going anywhere anytime soon

@jimgraham6722

Жыл бұрын

There will be maintenance for EVs but the focus will be very different from ICE, engine/transmission maintenance will be much less. However, my prediction is suspension, steering, wheels and tires will be greater. Maintenance of integrated cooling system (battery/engine/cabin) will also be an issue. . Maintenance of the battery pack, inverter, engine/transmission will be highly specialised due to the variety of schemes and high voltages.😢

@larryc1616

Жыл бұрын

They'll all go like travel agencies and DVD rentals

@WarblesOnALot

Жыл бұрын

G'day, Squeak for yourself... My son is 33, he lives in an Off-Grid Stand-Alone Solar House, he's the town's Auto-Electrician - I raised him on Kerosene-Lamps and Candles, till my early home-made Wind Turbines started spinning Current from the Breeze - and then Solar Panels became way cheaper and more reliable than my Windmills. My Hut and Workshop and eBike all run from my Solar Tracking Tower of Power, and my daughter lives in a Solar Electric 6-metre diameter Yurt..., which has it's own Array, Controller, Batteries, Inverter (and 750w Backup Genny - let's be honest). I've taught the townspeople agound here how to cut their ICE-powered Vehicles' Fuelburns by between 5% and 35% - simply by adding a PV Panel and a Solar Charge Controller, and an Inline Fuse between the Battery and Controller. The SunFoil (streamlined Solar Array) FINISHES Recharging the Vehicle's Battery after the Alternator shuts down, when the Engine is switched off - at every Journey's end...; thus EVERY Time that the Engine is started, it is after the Battery "went to bed fully fed...", so after startup - the Alternator doesn't have to load-up the Crankshaft via the Step-up Drive, trying to fast-charge a part-flat Battery - so therefore it isn't burning any extra Fuel to spin what amounts to being an Electromagnetic Drag-Brake through a Torque-Multiplier, all to tow a 30% flat Lead/Acid "Parachute"..., dragging along "behind" the Fueltank-On-Wheels...(!). (Backtrack me to my Playlist titled, "The SunFoil Project..." For all the Raw Observational Experimental Data, Analysis, Construction Videos, and also the Australian Government's CSIRO Evaluation and ENDORSEMENT of my results...). When he was a 1st year Apprentice, my son allowed me to fit the 20 Watt Mk-2 SunFoil on his Subaru Brumby, to compare against the 5 Watt Mk-1 on my Subaru 1800 Touring Wagon, and then the 30 Watt Mk-3 on mine, and then he got a 4-WD Turbocharged Diesel Rodeo which tested the 30 Watt Mk-5...; after that, when he bought the Business where he'd served his Apprenhiceship, he put 2x 120 Watt + 2 x 45 Watt Panels onto his 5-ton Isuzu Workshop Truck..., after which I put a 30 Watt Mk-8 onto my Subaru Forester, and a 70 Watt Mk-8 onto my daughter's Forester... Observing us, Behaving thus... The rest of the town Apparently figured out that It isn't a Bullshit Idea... There are now maybe 60 or 100 locally-registered Vehicles getting around, Up and down the Main Street, sporting DIY Copycat Samizdat SunFoils... In Glen Innes, NSW, Oz. If you raise your kids to live in their Future, then you have to raise them to know how to REPAIR EVERYTHING which They'll need to use, in order to Maintain some semblance of a Comfortable Lifestyle. Because, Anthropogenic Global Warming Is WINNING.... Buggar it !!! Such is life, Have a good one... Stay safe. ;-p Ciao !

Those companies moving their production to China, were erecting their own scaffolds

@brilanto

Жыл бұрын

At least management got its profits and bonuses...

@hanswitvliet8188

Жыл бұрын

@@brilanto good for a final farewell party. At school they should have paid more attention to Darwin.

@lchpdmq

Жыл бұрын

Tesla makes most of its profit from Chinese manufactured cars…..

@hanswitvliet8188

Жыл бұрын

@@lchpdmq they learned from it. Giga-Mexico will do better.

@wgemini4422

Жыл бұрын

They didn't though. Foreign brands exports very few cars to western countries, other than Tesla of course.

I don't think China had some sinister plot in mind when they allowed foreign companies to operate in China. Rather it was foreign companies that went to China to exploit their cheap labor and lack of environmental regulations. The world was happy exploit China for financial gain. Today, China is a powerhouse leading the world into a cleaner future at a far greater pace than anyone ever expected. The transition to EV's is no longer an option and there won't be enough money to bail everyone out. It won't be just automakers that suffer. Each manufacturer has thousands of suppliers that will lose their businesses. Entire nations will see changes in their financial power as we transition away from fossil fuels. The transition will be painful for many, but it will be better for everybody.

@4literv6

Жыл бұрын

Well said mostly. Because you missed that on a per capita basis the U.S. has more renewable and nuclear emissions free energy than China. And the ira is streamlining and boosting renewables and evs into war time footing mode. The whole world trembled when American industrial might was cranked up the last time during ww2. We the U.S. are gonna shock and awe some folks here right quick. 10-12,000,000 U.S. built evs a year by 2030 or sooner and adding more new capacity and factories every month it seems. We have enough renewable energy and bess just waiting to inter connect to our grids to 2-3x the current 21% of renewable electrical generation capacity. We could be 80%+renewable and nuclear powered by 2027 if we get out of our own way or sooner. 😎

@pinchevulpes

Жыл бұрын

Yeah 10 years ago de globalization is rampant and china is in the rear view mirror, there’s not going to be a supply chain to support EV manufacturing to scale, china won’t even be able to feed itself.

@paulrath7764

Жыл бұрын

LOL - China is building two new coal-fired power plants every month. Are they really leading the world into a "cleaner future?"

@nguyep4

Жыл бұрын

Wrong, they knew of corporate greed and took full advantage of it and take all manufacturing skills and learn everything they can and eventually they will be the new master of the trades.

@kenwk2283

Жыл бұрын

Nope, the manufacturers r suckers as all China wants is to learn.

You've had some solid and even more fascinating content recently Sam. Raising the bar as a quality source of information over the entire auto industry. I came here for Tesla but staying for the awareness of the global auto transition 👌

@LoveForTheTruthTV

Жыл бұрын

Facts.

@thisisnumber0

5 ай бұрын

😂🤣😂🤣

@bonkersdrifttrikes8799

5 ай бұрын

@@thisisnumber0 hey kid you should probably give your mum's phone back👍

@thisisnumber0

5 ай бұрын

@@bonkersdrifttrikes8799 She never had one, died about 15 years ago😛

@user-vj9hy8dw9e

4 ай бұрын

@@bonkersdrifttrikes8799 Transition? These Evs are being rejected globally especially in NA. Can you even afford an ev let alone the replacement battery? I doubt you can afford either.

Just watched a guy who blogs on China show how one of the main brands electric vehicles keep catching fire on China

@jaybloggs8699

Жыл бұрын

Serpentza channel..

@ablam8

Жыл бұрын

In the West, we are fed negative stories about China daily, and sadly, the US government pays well for it. You must take it with a huge grain of salt.

@MineFullStop

Жыл бұрын

Yea I wouldn't believe a word he saids. He use to talk the nicest things about China but no one ever watched so he changed tactics and realised by trolling and hating on China gets views. I know because I watched him from the very start. When I call him up on it he deletes my comments.

@nigelliam153

Жыл бұрын

It's true but it's not just China it's a worldwide phenomenon. There's a reason why Tesla has a small ac unit to keep the internal temperature of the car below 28 degC while parked.

@nehcooahnait7827

Жыл бұрын

@@jaybloggs8699 ah for fucks’ sake. That shit still breaths?

Unfortunately, I saw this 15 years ago. With all outsourcing that goes to China not just cars. Products need to be made globally not just where you can get cheap labor. Thank God I get to retire soon because the labor market in North America sucks.

@kabysummit5801

Жыл бұрын

US gov and particularly the private sectors played a hand in creating the current economic climate based on greed. Now, it wants to make China the scapegoat and attack it. Certain news channels are already exposing this fact. No wars!

@TheBooban

Жыл бұрын

You know who else saw this? Those crazy anti globalist protesters that have become antifa today. I never suspected our govts. would be so stupid and that the crazies were right.

@kenoliver8913

Жыл бұрын

But Chinese labour is not very cheap these days - about the same cost as Mexican labour in fact. There are still plenty of much cheaper countries around - most of Africa for a start (which is exactly why the Chinese are investing trillions there). Globalisation is about a lot more than China.

Standard auto dealerships are Blockbuster Video

a few years ago Xi determined that there were far too many Chinese car companies, > 600, and they made the hard strategic move to create policy that would whittle this down. This change is healthy for the industry. Too much competition is bad because you can never attain scale and consumer can't tell who is not a scam, most were really bad and poor quality. You also don't want too little competition as this will hurt consumers greatly. So right now Chinese auto industry is going through a healthy rebalance, but there is just some collateral damage along the way, but in the end this will let the survivors be healthier, stronger, better.

@moneyobsessed

Жыл бұрын

china cant afford now to have hundreds of companies and millions of workers to be unenployed

Discounts of up to 50% on cars is not a readjustment, it is a liquidation. So those manufacturers in China are going away. Tesla gets its money out of China by exporting all of its production. There is no domestic market and no way to get that money out other than buy raw materials in China to make cars for export.

I love this story. It's a sad story, but had to be shared. You amaze me, you are always on top of things.

@zes7215

2 ай бұрын

wrgg

It has been known since 2016… people just ignoring it

When you say "Can they (governments) do this?", you should rephrase that to "Can tax payers afford it?". Governments do bail them out. We know this, because they've done it before. But, they bail them out with tax payers money, which leads to rises in taxes to pay for that bailout.

If you have debt, you don't have assets. You have debt.

@larryc1616

Жыл бұрын

VW = 200B debt

China 6 emission standards, including the 6b-part that comes into play this July, were announced and put into law in 2016. This is hardly a surprise for anyone, nor is it any attempt by the government to 'nuke' the industry. As a matter of fact, China 6b is mostly comparable to American Tier 3 standards, that will be in effect in 2025. Euro 6 and 7 is way behind on most emissions levels, but Euro 7 has some interesting and yet not fully defined OBD regulations. The cars in dealer lots are not a problem for the car companies. They sold them already, the money is in the bank. It is a problem for dealerships, as you explained correctly. The current situation has probably a lot more to do with covid than with emission standards. The insecurity of the pandemic at first, China's quick re-starting of the economy and massively overheating it, following parts shortages, very long delivery times and to top it off, the backlash when the government changed its covid policy. Supply and demand have been out of tune for almost three years now. And the dealers are of course the ones taking the biggest hit, having a large stock when they didn't need it and nothing to sell when everyone was spending their money. During the early days of covid many brands started to experiment with direct sales and sales through online platforms. Many now have both online and offline sales channels. It will be interesting to see if the dealership model survives in China.

@petersmangalisongoma2013

Жыл бұрын

Cars in dealerships are a problem to manufacturers because dealers are getting bankrupt. Their product distribution channels are getting closed

@madchenwheat9364

Жыл бұрын

Thank you for your perspective! It's great to know the details behind the story!

@s13kuminachu

Жыл бұрын

Solid take. Manufactures got paid. Dealers are left holding the bag. Will the OEM's do anything to help? Will banks be lenient on flooring costs? Anything past 60-90 days cost interest for dealers and it adds up quick.

@gregoryfrech2310

Жыл бұрын

American standards will change/go-away when the republicans take over again. It is what it is.

@andrewschmidt2886

Жыл бұрын

So you are saying that Chinese people on the dealerships and not so much the auto manufacturers

There are too many cars in China. A little reset won't hurt them. In some cities, the roads are at capacity, so the govt has to set up a lottery to give out car permits. And they give out twice as many EV permits as ICE permits.

Not thinking of buying a new car for years from now, will keep my Honda Civic with 50 mpg for as long as I can. This news will pass like all other things in life. Thanks Sam and good wishes to your family.

The argument's main fault is that China had announced the progress and even specified which year as target to transform into EV in "China". The traditional car manufacturers could blame no one but themselves. If they could not satisfy the Chinese market, then they could sell the products outside China or go to some other place where their fossil fuel car still competitive. Indeed, I have noticed that China did not put their effort to improve their fossil fuel engine and instead has been spending heavily in new energy technologies R&D including batteries.

Scratching my head...if the dealerships in China own their inventory, and assumably those dealerships are OWNED BY CHINESE, then the loss of sales will affect the manufacturers, but the Chinese dealership owners will take the worst hit. And possibly those cars will be exported and sold at a loss, boosting the other economies where cheap cars are needed?

@madchenwheat9364

Жыл бұрын

And a lot of the manufactures have started shifting to direct sale mode and in the process of scaling down their dealer networks anyway.

@realestatenow

Жыл бұрын

They can sell at a loss and if they can’t then declare bankruptcy.

@stanweaver6116

Жыл бұрын

His analysis is simplistic as he really is an electric car booster who thinks only electric vehicles will be used ten years from now. That isn’t even a possibility because of a lack of materials to make that system operate. The jump in Chinese EV sales in Russia is a no brain comment, where else can Russia buy anything these days.

@realestatenow

Жыл бұрын

@@stanweaver6116 most of the Chinese cars being sold in Russia are not electric. Chinese brands have plans to sell EVs as well but they have gone from 10% to 40% market share in just one year. The Russian car market has a severe contraction in 2022 (I think 60% or so). They have started importing from neighboring countries and increased domestic production (in some cases just assembly).

@danielch6662

Жыл бұрын

​@@madchenwheat9364 it's for the best. We don't need expensive dealerships. End of the day, we the customers pays for them. The customers pays for everything. We only need service centers. Preferably independent ones rather than locked into particular brands.

This will be like the 3 red lines for real estate in China. Unintended and unforeseen consequences.

Great work!!

It's a free market with the best management win.

Very interesting. Somehow the stock prices of Honda, Toyota, Mazda, VW have been rising. Investors have a different picture in their minds. I cannot figure it out.

@petersmangalisongoma2013

Жыл бұрын

Never under estimate the impact of Jim Cramer's advice 😂😂😂

@svargamba

Жыл бұрын

They are not very sophisticated in this area.

@user-jh6vt8vx4v

Жыл бұрын

The stock market is too far off from the real economy.

@larryc1616

Жыл бұрын

Short!

@808BizStuff

Жыл бұрын

Coordinated pump for exit liquidity from retail investors?

I think the financial world and gov'ts need to stop with the "their to big to fail" philosiphy regarding banks and auto companies. These two industries are due for a thinning of the ranks and it's about time we allow it to happen naturally.

@noahway13

Жыл бұрын

Yep, totally, but everyone is going to feel the hurt. BIG HURT.

@andrewschmidt2886

Жыл бұрын

Tesla and BYD will come out on top it’s good I got stock in both

@Hybridog

Жыл бұрын

So you think putting millions out of work at the car companies, their suppliers, dealers etc. is a good thing and we should just let that happen? Or the banks and financial firms and all the millions of people who depend on what they do? Just let them go out of business and everyone suffers right? You seem to think the carnage would be limited, but it wouldn't be. And why exactly is it a good thing to let things "happen naturally"? Everything we do is an artificial construct - everything. If we don't control, regulate, manipulate, shape, mold, guide all these constructs, they all will fail and so will civilization. It's unnatural by design. So what, just give up let nature's chaos ensue, and then sit in your mud hut and wait to die? Genius. And grow up BTW.

@simonromijn3655

Жыл бұрын

I am guessing that both Germany and Japan will let car makers go to the wall because there will be no political imperative to bail them out. This is because both countries have declining populations and there will not be a shortage of jobs for retrenched car industry workers.

@hamishfullerton7309

Жыл бұрын

@@simonromijn3655 there biggest industry s , the company's are basically run by government and still have population of around 100 million, I don't think so. If Australia can spend over 300billion on submarines. think they will keep there car industries going

This ain't "social experiment", this is the good old "competition". The winners come out on top, the losers go home. This was an open exam given out by the Chinese government many years ago. Some automobile makers are too naïve or short-sighted, they underestimated the determination by the Chinese government, and tried to milk the ICE profits as much as possible. They really thought no one is able to make a viable profitable EV in the proposed time and the Chinese government will delay their rules. Then, here came the BYD and Tesla, and the rest is and/or will be history.

@gaoxiaen1

Жыл бұрын

Except that, for the most part, EVs run on coal.

@andoverite

7 ай бұрын

@@gaoxiaen1 Ah, but not in China! That's where the non-stop program of building massive hydro-electric dams throughout China will reduce the demand for coal generated electric energy.

Ponder this: What If: all of those workers who build ICE cars in China loose their jobs in the next year? If those workers loose their income they are no longer consumers contributing to the Chinese economy but rather unemployed citizens needing social assistance which means they are a double knock worsening the Chinese economy.

I imagine all the cars that can't be sold in China will go to other countries (probably nearby Asian ones) and be sold there; at a discount, to be sure, but dealers will find some way to liquidate them.

@wangyaohan8824

Жыл бұрын

countries with left hand steering wheel.

@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis

Жыл бұрын

@@wangyaohan8824 there are a surprising number of countries that will accept cars with the steering wheel on that side.

@wangyaohan8824

Жыл бұрын

@@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis agree.

@jackreacher8858

Жыл бұрын

@@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis So it not this one but that one ! LOL !

@TIKIWOLF

Жыл бұрын

Saw a lefty here in Hawaii the other day. Loads of smaller delivery trucks too.🚛

Few points: - in Shanghai or Beijing, the difficulty of registering cars is not new and has been there for decades and you would never have bought a car before securing the right to buy one in these cities and yet it never affected overall demand. but also if you have a car already and wants to change then there is 0 difficulty into changing the registration over - Car manufacturers are appealing right now for the right to continue selling current models with CHina 6 standard until at least December 31 2023 and if possible June 30 2024. The likelihood is that some extension will be granted because this is the way things are in China. They float an idea, see what the reaction is and adapt. And one thing that is very important is that the extension is likely to be granted because all the brands you see as Japanese, US or German are in joint-venture with Chinese state owned companies and except for luxury models which are imported the rest are made in China. So for example Citroen's partner is Dongfeng, a huge stateowned carmaker, and part of the discounts on those cars is being funded by the Hubei provincial government. So in fact this will also cost the state a lot so it is likely that rules on China 6b emissions will be delayed at least for part of the country (and by the way these rules are coming in most other countries as they are part of commitment on climate change emission reductions). anyway, so people will wait and see if discounts get bigger or not. But the future is electric and demand there is slacker and I would not conclude Elon Mush was right... Whilst Tesla is still doing "ok" in China, it is like Starbucks. a victim of its success... too many sales, too early. And so few models.... Compared to 3 years ago, there is no stigma now in choosing a Li L9 or Xpeng G9 or Aito M5 or IM - LS7 or a Nio ES7.... Now Tesla is reacting by cutting prices a lot (RMB229 k for a base model 3 now) but in the end these other brands are also getting much better at marketing ... And they understand Chinese customers better.... all offer their cars in colors that in the US or Europe may be weird but that many want here. But in the end, we will see if Elon Musk going it alone in China without a JV partner is the right thing or not. When things are good, it is a good idea, when things slow down, well.... who knows also whilst BMW is doing huge discounts on BMW i3 which cannot sell in China (so many other mini and small EVs so no market for an imported subpar small EV given import taxes), they are also making a huge push on the BMW i7.... And in small EV segment, Benz was smart to start that JV with Geely. Probably not huge number but that smart #1 is appealing to more and more people and we see a lot around Shanghai these days. and they followed the Chinese EV company playbook: if customers want these in bright yellow, pink or baby blue, then let's do it

@leighrobertson2731

5 ай бұрын

Thank you... For your input very interesting and I totally agree I am a spray painter I work on the Sunshine Coast we work on all of high-end vehicles and all they are now EVs teslas and byds . We have at least 2 EVs a day leaving our workshop.

@cb250nighthawk3

4 ай бұрын

I want it in sunshine sunflower yellow. 🌻

I think 'ownership of the means of production ' went over most peoples heads :-)

@captainalex157

Жыл бұрын

commies at it again

@zenithdawn9663

Жыл бұрын

We've already seen this happen with the steel industry and many more.

@jomckeag4482

Жыл бұрын

Comrades! UNITE!!

@ahaveland

5 ай бұрын

Dyslexics of the world, untie! You have nothing to lose but your Brians!

@Obsid_Ian

4 ай бұрын

@@ahaveland Remember the dyslexic atheist who lay in bed wondering if there really is a dog!

Great analysis.

China's hit the rest button, by accident, from the emissions law that was passed 7 yes ago. Legacy Auto management has been on Level 5 FSD mode the whole time. 🤯

Tony Seba discussed this "stranded assets" factor NINE years ago... Who was listening back then? (I was... amongst a handful of others).

@FutureSystem738

Жыл бұрын

Ditto 👍

@808BizStuff

Жыл бұрын

Seba FTW! Yep, me too. 👍

Thank you

I’m sure the majority of those cars will get shipped to other markets. Buy them at auction and resell them in Africa.

Ask not for who the bell tolls automakers, it tolls for you.

@clintatk

Жыл бұрын

Whom. Sorry, I just couldn’t resist. 😂

@devonbikefilms

Жыл бұрын

@@clintatk 😂😂😂

@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

Жыл бұрын

It trolls for LEGAs

When the US plays hardball over issues of trade, with the EU following suit, China plays wrecking ball.

@JorgeMartinez-ez1jl

Жыл бұрын

US, Japan and Europe can always ban sales of Chinese cars too.

@ordinaryhuman5645

Жыл бұрын

It's less about trade and more about "stop trying to sell your legacy ICE trash".

@pikachus5m166

Жыл бұрын

@@JorgeMartinez-ez1jl They're already doing that with the ban of high-end chips, putting up obstacles to prevent CATL, the biggest EV battery manufacture, from building manufacturing facilities in Europe or the US, and thinking of additional levies or import duties, anything to stall the market. But the growth regions are the remaining 75% of the globe, where the US, Eu and Japan are priced out.

@zenithdawn9663

Жыл бұрын

America's electrical grid is not up to handling all cars being EV. ICE will have a place until that is taken care of...or maybe we can start burning coal like China to power our EV's.

Thanks

This channel is the only place I have heard about this important economic issue. It will certainly be interesting to see what transpires.

@electricviking

11 ай бұрын

Thanks Mate!

We are nearing a "post-scarcity" situation. We need to deal with that.

@Martinit0

Жыл бұрын

I think post-scarcity got called off for another decade: stuff that is currently in high demand (> than supply): * BEVs * BESS (Battery energy storage systems) * Heat pumps * companies installing heat pumps and solar panels

American automakers *really* don’t want dealerships anymore. Franchise laws here require that dealerships act as a middleman.

Don’t forget we Chinese who don’t live in the first tier city, we are the majority, young man and women who start their careers living in small cities, we would like a heavily discounted gas car if it is cheaper than the EV! Just wanna point out to foreign analysts that you need look beyond Beijing and Shanghai.

I don’t know what will happen but I am amazed that the situation is not being covered much by the media. It’s no longer a slow moving disaster.

Anyone not believing this need only remember all the pollution stories we used to see about Chinese cities. China is seriously trying to lower their air pollution and if foreign automakers need to be sacrificed to do it, so much the the better.

@davidanderson8469

Жыл бұрын

They could have cleaned it up decades ago. It's not rocket science. XI has no regard for his people.

@billyehh

Жыл бұрын

Where are they going to get the electricity for them. They already have a serious power problem and the main answer is coal. Even more polluting than gasoline.

@parajacks4

Жыл бұрын

@@billyehh China is the world leader in new green energy and has been for a while.

@timothychung4811

Жыл бұрын

​@@billyehh Hydro, solar, nuclear, wind, and fusion so far, but the break throughs in research have other possibilities....

@ianstobie

Жыл бұрын

Coal was running at 63 percent of the energy used to generate electricity in China in 2021. They are not going to reduce that much, nor do they intend to, as they are still opening coal mines. Under its COP 26 pledges, China has stopped building coal plants abroad, but it will keep adding new coal electricity plants in China until 2025. After that it may gradually reduce coal's role, but no firm pledges have been made on that. This isn't incompatible with switching rapidly to using more battery EVs in cities. Yes, the BEVs are ultimately mostly coal powered, but the air quality in cities is the key thing that people notice, and the BEVs are cleaner than the mix of vehicles they have now. India is the other big country still using lots of coal in electricity generation. It is also has a problem with city air pollution, so will also switch to electric vehicles once they get more economical. I think India's priority now is switching to renewables, especially solar, in electricity generation. The US comes next in coal use for electricity. Globally about a third of electricity is generated from coal. If you add natural gas in its various forms including LNG this goes up to well over a half - approaching 60 per cent, for these two fossils fuels. The natural gas share is still rising, so don't expect the fossil fuel share in electricity generation to fall much before 2030 - and with it CO2 emissions from power plants. This of course is the context in which electric vehicles should be seen. They can clean up air locally, but whether they help with CO2 emissions depends entirely on how the electricity being used to charge their batteries is generated. Australia's role in all this is as a major exporter of both LNG and coal. It does have plans to export "green" hydrogen produced from solar at some point in the future, but this may still be vaporware!

You can look high and low searching for an idea of what the future of the car industry is but however hard you look you keep coming back to Tesla.

@EnriqueThiele

Жыл бұрын

The reason as of today is because Tesla (a technology company) is the largest manufacturer of EV in the world, without any credible "competitor".

@gmsuchecki

Жыл бұрын

@@EnriqueThiele I think BYD could be a competitor. Maybe Geely/Volvo will also.

Over a hundred car companies going bankrupt meaning all employees and suppliers for all the parts are out of work as well. Seem the "knock-on" effects have not been discussed as they are important!

👍Good presentation👍

There will no doubt be a lot of consolidation in the industry in addition to bankruptcies. I think some of the larger OEMs will split off their EV manufacturing in the same way Ford has done in an attempt to let their ICE production fade away. I don’t think that will work. The US government will bail out GM (again). Not sure about Stellantis or Ford. Dealerships will fold en masse. There’s no way the legacy OEMs can compete with Tesla if they’re stuck with the dealership model. They’ll have to buy out their contracts. China’s a lost market for foreign OEMs. You’re right that China doesn’t need or want those competitors taking market share from their own automakers. It’s likely that many legacy OEMs will go bankrupt, but not without a fight.

China's economy is slowing down.

Cheapest EV in the UK is £28000 English pounds with a 200 mile range ,either I have got to have a massive pay increase or the price of EV cars has drastically to be reduced to affordable levels

@XenonJohnD

Жыл бұрын

Base model VW Golf in UK is £24,835. Nissan Leaf 239 miles £25,812. Zoe 245miles £25,609.

@MsSteveeverett

Жыл бұрын

@@XenonJohnD can't afford any of those!

Thank you, for this information. Let’s hope our leaders are watching your channel…

i have been saying for a long long time Evs are a strategic initiative. Tony Seba warned us about disruptions on the horizons. Its a perfect storm coming. OEMs are still not understanding the future. I for one only have sympathy for the workers.

@user-jh6vt8vx4v

Жыл бұрын

For state own enterprise, the worker is likely get a pretty decent servent package. Then they can job right to Ev start up division. With ICE competestion gone. It ill be ev or nothing

A quick check says that 84% of GM’s debt is held by their financial services division. So servicing the debt load may not be as bad as one would at first think.

@guslevy3506

Жыл бұрын

GMAC is completely independent of GM. GM sold GMAC yrs ago in one of their other financial crises…

@johnburger1320

Жыл бұрын

@@guslevy3506 In July 2010, General Motors entered into a definitive agreement to acquire AmeriCredit in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $3.5 billion. The deal provided GM with a new financial arm to replace the loss of GMAC (now Ally Financial) in 2006.[6] Following the approval of the deal by AmeriCredit shareholders, GM renamed the company "GM Financial" on October 1, 2010.[7]

@gaoxiaen1

Жыл бұрын

@@guslevy3506 GMAC with Chinese characteristics.

You are exactly right. Forgot to mention reduce supply of components or raise prices.

8 months in, I suggest an update on that. Your videos are great!

3 years of lockdowns, very smart.😂🤣

They don’t even need to make antiquated car chips anymore😅

@thaven5004

Жыл бұрын

I know you were just having fun, but I am responding as if you were serious. As far as I know, a chip fabrication plant (fab) is worth nothing once it stops working. The actual building is a specialized design, the equipment inside cannot be repurposed and can only be sold as scrap metal, and the employees' skills are nearly useless at new fabs. So, as the fab ages and the yield goes down (often matching the reduction in demand), they will run it until there are no more customers. Last time I checked, there was at least one fab still making a 80386 variant chip - it is still being used as an embedded chip and they would have to redesign/recertify the entire device to change it. Maybe the Raytheon Patriot missiles each have a 80386 still.

Dealers are bankrupt (not just in China, but in US too) because most people don't have the money either to buy expensive cars or to pay the loans already existing - how is any Govt. concerned in the bankruptcy?

Byd, have opened up dealerships in the UK.

It all started with making fire-crackers 🧨. Then TV's, Stereo's, Android Phone's ...now, Cars....HELLO ❗

"Slurping dinosaur juice" - Love it. Great expression.

@bobsmith3983

Жыл бұрын

Crude oil does not originate from biological origins this was proven by the Russians using deep well drilling. They found oil where no dinosaurs or other biological material could have ever existed.

Actually, this could have been anticipated. Back in 2005 China was already pushing for smaller cars (I was researching it back then for a large organisation). Now we are more than years later!!

They are shooting themselves in the foot. They forget that consumer spending is what drives the vast majority of any country's GDP. If and increasing amount of consumers are out of work, who will buy their products?

most of the Petrol Japanese cars will be exported to Russia.

@jkn6644

Жыл бұрын

And all other cars that can't be sold in China!

@jkn6644

Жыл бұрын

@@johnsmith-cw3wo If Chinese dealers own those cars, why not sell to Ruzzia?

No family EV's on the market for reasonable prices yet sadly. It's coming but I need a car now so 2nd hand ice market for me sadly.

@realestatenow

Жыл бұрын

Ami hope you get a good deal. Used car prices continue to be high.

We just bought a 2024 Camry SE last week. Loving it.

You are definitely thinking about this using a BIG picture view which is what is needed...your analysis makes logical sense in my opinion.

I remember reading that the Great Depression was caused by the collapse of the market for horse feed brought about by the success of the automobile. Will we have another collapse caused by the success of the EV? “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” - Mark Twain

@godzillamothra5983

Жыл бұрын

except this time the one who make the obsolete things are foreign companies

@fsaldan1

Жыл бұрын

You should not believe everything you read. Especially when it is obviously absurd.

@handyallen

Жыл бұрын

In New York city 1910 their were 200 buggy whip manufacturers by 1930 their were 0

@jackreacher8858

Жыл бұрын

Story sound horsey to me what !

@gaoxiaen1

Жыл бұрын

No, because the success of the EV market is a pipe dream

This has been my whole thesis... Stranded assets. If the government forces you into ev, you have billions of useless assets. Lol.... The government made Tesla such an easy investment, I'm astounded people in finance can't do this math. I'm surrounded by actually stupid people in this industry. If management doesn't directly tell them something, they can't do it. Doing their own independent research or learning anything new is almost impossible for these people.

@vilefly

Жыл бұрын

Vogons are slug-like but vaguely humanoid, are bulkier than humans, and have green skin. Vogons are described as one of the most unpleasant races in the galaxy-not actually evil, but bad-tempered, bureaucratic, officious and callous, having as much sex appeal as a road accident, as well as being the authors of the third worst poetry in the universe. They are employed as the galactic government's bureaucrats. They are also the worst marksmen in the galaxy. They follow orders as they were told to and will not allow exceptions. They don't create anything, they just run everything.

He has insights!

EV sales are falling through the floor……….Smart people are waking up.

Can they ship these cars out of China and sell them in another country

@royh6526

Жыл бұрын

I expect so. Certainly the obvious thing to do rather than sell for scrap value.

@WANDERER0070

Жыл бұрын

Sure Rusia is good place 😂 they dont care about Evs

How do you know these cars are stranded? What is the regulation in which they are non compliant? When I googled it, it seemed that most cars would be compliant.

@danielch6662

Жыл бұрын

The ones that are compliant will get less discounts. The ones not compliant at getting the steepest discounts now.

This disrupts the oil lobby😢. One place they find it difficult to manouevre their way in is in CP-China.

Great!

Tesla and BYD are not immune.

@user-jh6vt8vx4v

Жыл бұрын

For this specific case, they are. The problem is not the demand ot economic, but emissions standard and competition between the EV manufacture spill over to ICE product

Stellar analysis: I think you've nailed it. What will the consequences be? It's now up to the governments of Europe and Japan to act as only USA seems to have awakened and smelled the roses. That is why Volvo, both truck and car businesses, is more and more looking to go to the USA as the incentives being put in place clearly favors manufacturers based in USA. Otherwise there is another entire business sector and all those ramifications going bust in Europe and Japan.

@danielch6662

Жыл бұрын

Volvo (the car part) is Chinese. Has been for years. Truck part is doing fine.

@jomckeag4482

Жыл бұрын

Volvo, a quality CHINESE car company

@N0rdman

Жыл бұрын

@@jomckeag4482 only Volvo Cars, Volvo Trucks are still a separate entity and is NOT Chinese owned.

@johnmckeag1048

Жыл бұрын

@@N0rdman Volvo makes trucks!?!? Who woulda’ thunk

@N0rdman

Жыл бұрын

@@johnmckeag1048 Volvo makes trucks, buses and construction equipment, like dumpsters, diggers and Volvo also supplies marine and industrial drive systems too. Oh, did I forget, Volvo owns Mack Trucks in the USA too, it's a part of Volvo.

I was just in China. People are happy, affluent, and 50% of all cars are EVs. They're living his future.

This is why my latest purchase is a Lexus (Toyota) NX450h+ I won’t buy a Chinese vehicle. I am very happy with my purchase too!

The crazy part of this story is the used ICE market get squeezed hard as wellm

Don't forget this: the world's largest robotic company (robots that build cars) is Midea Group (Kuka robots). A Chinese company. Even Tesla uses Kuka robots: "Kuka robots are mostly industrial arm robots used in manufacturing. It is Tesla's preferred robot for most of its production line along with some FANUC robots." (Electrek, 2022) So, no matter which company survives, there's a chance they will use Kuka robots.

@sahanda2000

Жыл бұрын

Kuka is a small company, (rev.: 3,5 billions usd) lost most of its market to smaller Chinese oem's for the last 15 years... they hit hard in 2009 crisis when (when Chrysler, GM etc gone bankrupt) and Midea just saved them from a coming bankruptcy... and industrial robots are not a critical area of tech expertise any more, just a little bit more flexible solution for automation...

@ricnyc2759

Жыл бұрын

@@sahanda2000 BMW, GM, Chrysler, Ford, Volvo, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Daimler AG are among the customers.

@ricnyc2759

Жыл бұрын

@@desertstar223 Robot as in "robotic arms". kzread.info/dash/bejne/n45hrph_qruZqag.html

No government should bail out any car company. Let the market run its course.

It is not just the auto industry in China that is tanking....manufacturing in China has plummeted across all products. Part of the reason for such slow vehicle sales is the amount of jobs that have been lost there...that economy is struggling

@jimmywarren6685

Жыл бұрын

@@johnsmith-cw3wo Nobody said that our economy is booming...there is no booming economy in the world. But, China is struggling as bad as anywhere.

Hilarious that the commercial I keep getting served for EViking videos is for the Canadian Oil and Gas Industry!

@user-jh6vt8vx4v

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, same here. And they call themselves green. Sure, however works.

@damo5701

Жыл бұрын

The truly hilarious thing is most people are ignorant to fact that it was a Rockefeller and other elements of BIG OIL that started the anthropogenic CO2 climate change scam! I always laugh hardest when I hear climate activists claiming anyone disagreeing with the narrative, is being paid for by big oil.

Gasoline powered cars smell more than you know. I used to deliver newspapers at 3:00 am and the air quality was so much better before the traffic built up. If eight hours of low traffic noticeably improves the air quality, how much better will the air be when we quit burning petroleum products. The time is now.

Sandy Munro said two years ago that the big auto makers were ten years behind Tesla. He even suggested their collapse. I recently started watching The Electric Viking, very good episodes so far. I would like to hear your views on the Aptera Company. It being a startup company, I have not invested money however I did place my order for one of their solar vehicles.

"Slurping dinosaur juice" ROFL

If the governments are smart then it would not be wise to throw money at a dwindling industry.

@1arritechno

Жыл бұрын

ICE Industry is NOT naturally dwindling , it is contrived. The destructive CCP Rules as with their Real Estate is the problem. It is best for Int., Governments & Corporations to totally avoid China as a manufacturing base,, much the came as Samsung packed up and left.

120 days. Where will a couple million unsold cars end up? Indonesia? A few thousand in Laos? Thailand?

You are correct. Nothing to add

The way I see it, the foreign companies will most likely lobby for a deal to sell whatever they can. Otherwise, either try to cheat the system or shift whatever they can to other markets (most likely asian). Given the narrow profit margins for volume sellers, I don't know how feasible that will be, unless they either bump up the prices or get some good tax deals. Very iffy though, with essentially one trimester to go.

@timwhite8500

Жыл бұрын

Good luck trying to lobby that government

Seeing some videos out of China showing parking station buildings with thousdands of BYD NEVs covered in dust. Potentially BYD is cooking the books on their sales and profitability.

Dealerships survive on after sales and spare parts. EV cars will suffer too. Tesla sales are steeply down and have to be discounted at unimaginable prices

Car manufacturers produce more than American public education

Even though governments love to bail out banks and car companies, I do not believe legacy auto will get bailed out, this time. What will they bail out, with companies that make products no one wants to buy? It is like bailing out a wagon wheel maker. A pile of money won't help these incompetent companies be able to make BEVs profitably.

@petersmangalisongoma2013

Жыл бұрын

Bailing out a wagon wheel maker 😂😂😂

@machoopichoo2

Жыл бұрын

@@petersmangalisongoma2013 Thanks! I believe it is not a bad metaphor. 😁

@TheBooban

Жыл бұрын

They will just buy from BYD and put their sticker on it, like other companies do for just about every other product. And charge us 5x the price. Designed and assembled domestically, perhaps, but BYD manufactured.

@machoopichoo2

Жыл бұрын

@@TheBooban Won't be cost competitive. BYD barely makes any money on their own cars, let alone, someone marking that up. BYD has crappy infotainment and ADAS. The consumer isn't going to pay for something from "Toyota" when it's just a badge, slapped on a car they didn't make. Lastly, this would still leave them with massive debt, an ICE business to wind down, and their steelerships.

@larryc1616

Жыл бұрын

What happens to VW, Porsche, Mercedes and BMW if Germany don't bail them out? 😮