Great discussion! Thanks for your thoughts. Appreciate hearing from people who have seen them all

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

Small correction. Fantasia’s first film was actually in 2006. She played herself in the Lifetime biopic “Life Is Not a Fairytale.”

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Did not know this. Thanks for sharing!

I personally don't think it matters if an actor is upstaged in their own film. I feel that if both the performances are good they can both get in

@mr29

8 ай бұрын

An example of this was Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga both getting in for Up in the Air.

Given some of the messages in Barbie - it would be AWFUL if the woman who was so wonderful as the title character and the woman who co-wrote and directed this massive hit are not nominated, but the man who played a supporting role is nominated. Hello irony.

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

100% agreed, but unfortunately I don’t think the voters will think like that. I mean Adam Driver was the only acting nominee for BlacKkKlansmen

@Kituchxy

8 ай бұрын

100% what I'm thinking. Margot is definetly In. We Don't like to admit it, but times Are changing. We are living in Historical times, a lot of Crazy abnormal stuff is gonna happen, especially In the Hollywood Industry, Margot along with the success of her movie, is one of those things, it's gonna be an iconic moment, I can already smell it 😍😍😍

I never understood the narrative that Robbie got upstaged. She gave the best performance of film if you ask me. If you nominate Gosling, then you have to nominate Robbie if you ask me.

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

She’s my favorite performance of the film as well, but sadly I think the general takeaway from most people is that Gosling was the standout. He definitely had the best comedic moments, but Robbie has to do a lot more dramatic and comedic moments and holds the whole thing together. Rooting for her!

@myytchanneldinakoha8498

8 ай бұрын

Let Margot go.

Annette Bening continues to be underestimated

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

This is coming from someone who used to think she could win pre-festival: I don’t see it happening

@poett8875

8 ай бұрын

She’s really not. She’s just not gonna happen🤷🏽‍♂️

I am a huge Emma Stone fan. Would love to see her win her 2nd Oscar.

@tonyg76

8 ай бұрын

Me, too. Only other preference would be Carey Mulligan winning her 1st Oscar.

Hmm I may have to consider adding Fantasia back into my five, but where???

@mr29

8 ай бұрын

I know, right? I think a case can be made for almost all of these candidates. The problem is there are only 5 slots!

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

I know! I need there to be 8 spots in this category this year - it’s too stacked!!

Great conversation gentlemen!

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Thank you! Thanks for watching and sharing your thoughts! :)

I can also see a world where Huller gets nominated in Supporting for TZOI freeing up a spot for Robbie, Bening, or Portman.

@myytchanneldinakoha8498

8 ай бұрын

Let Margot go.

Dwww, ik we're all conflicted about Margot bc we Don't wanna get dissapointed, but it's fine this time, she'll 100% get in.

Here goes nothing (11/27/23): Lily Gladstone Carey Mulligan Fantasia Barrino Emma Stone Sandra Huller

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Nice! Our only difference is I have Portman instead of Hüller, but my line-up changes every 5 minutes lol

@stephaniemccullough7725

8 ай бұрын

I think this is the most likely outcome as well. This was such a tough year and you could swap out Sandra with either Annette or Natalie and this would be a stacked lineup no matter what. I do think Emma takes it but it’s going to depend on what the general consensus of Poor Things is once it releases wide. I’d be happy with any of these women though! I can’t remember the last time we had such a competitive year.

@mr29

8 ай бұрын

​@@stephaniemccullough7725insanely competitive. We are going to have 3-4 omissions in this category that could have WON in lesser years. Youza.

I agree Natalie Portman is being underestimated. Thinking she can get in everywhere

Gladstone, Mulligan, Portman, Robbie, Stone

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Same for me except I’ve got Barrino over Robbie, but I keep flip flopping between them

My five: Emma Stone Carey Mulligan Lily Gladstone Annette Bening Natalie Portman

Having seen Color Purple. Danielle Brooks is definitely winning Supporting Actress. I believe Fantasia and Margot are going to be tussling back n forth all awards season for that 5th and final slot but in the end Fantasia will receive the Oscar nod.

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Can’t wait to see Brooks performance in particular! And I agree I keep flip flopping between Robbie and Barrino for that last spot

@michaelmasselli2869

8 ай бұрын

If there was no Hamilton Danielle Brooks would have won the Tony that year

@Kituchxy

8 ай бұрын

No, Margot is getting in

I will be rooting for Emma during award season! I truly believe she is the best actress of her generation and she gave imo the best performance of the year by a mile. Even though I also really loved Ryan Gosling and Willem Dafoe (but they are in another category anyway)

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Her performance is my favorite so far this year as well! Would love to see her win again cause I agree she is the best actress of her generation

I believe in looking at things from the story's perspective, screen time aside. But even considering the screen time, no other actress has more presence or significance than she does in the movie. Furthermore, Lily Gladstone's role in KOTFM is the heart, soul, and humanity of the whole film. Without her, that's what the story would lack. I'd say that's a lot. She along with Leo and Deniro are all leads. I think people need to consider what's being suggested by continuing to say she should've campaigned as a supporting actress instead.

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

100% agree that Gladstone is the soul and standout of KOTFM. However, I do still think it’s more of a supporting role than it is a lead role. But I’m not going to tell her where she should campaign, if she wants to campaign in lead then that’s what she should do. But I do think the size of the role is worth mentioning as a hindrance to her potential winning chances against clear leads

@tonyg76

8 ай бұрын

She should be campaigned as a supporting actress. IMO her performance is overrated.

We are rooting for Emma stone can’t wait to see poor things

It’s not Fantasia’s first film she had an entire lifetime movie based on her life that she stared in

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Thanks for the clarification!

Sandra Huller

Does anybody want to throw their NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE predictions out there?

@mr29

8 ай бұрын

I will start: Picture: The Zone of Interest Director: Jonathan Glazer (TZOI) Actor: Andrew Scott(Allof Us Strangers) Actress:Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One) Supporting Actor: Charles Melton (May December) Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks ( The Color Purple)

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

I can see all of those wins happening! I could maybe see them going for someone more under appreciated and underseen in supporting actress like Juliette Binoche. They always do some unexpected picks though so it will be fun to see tomorrow!

@mr29

8 ай бұрын

​@OscarFilmForecast Matt Neglia chose Binoche as well. I know Brooks feels rather "populist" for the NYFCC but this group awarded Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls back in the day. I guess we'll find out tomorrow 😊

The strange thing about Fantasia Barrino is some negative press in the past where her marriage beliefs are the woman should submit to the man and let him lead so not an equal partnership. Breaking up a marriage in the past? I wonder if past bad personal press will effect her chances. It did not for Polanski. Not really the central story of The Color Purple! Emma Stone will either win her second Oscar or Lily Gladstone her first and recording breaking.

I’ve seen May December, Portman’s character isn’t a worse person than the literal pedophile lol

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Not at all. I don’t think we said she was. Julianne Moore’s character is by far the worst person of the main characters. Portman’s character is still very flawed, but nowhere near the same level

Nyad is about Jodie Foster? Huh? Lol. Did we see the same film? The entire film Bening is having flashbacks to Cuba and her dad and the Greek myths. We follow Nyad's grueling training throughout the film. There's one big emotional scene when Foster is driving and when she talks to the boat captain, but that's all. The problem with Nyad and the problem with Bening, in general is that she often plays shrill, hysteric or unlikable women. All four of her nominated performances are for unlikable people who bicker and argue (The Grifters, American Beauty, Being Julia and The Kids Are All Right.) I do think people are underestimating Bening for the nomination but I think a win is out of the question at this point. May December looks amazing but it gives me screenplay vibes. I see a lot of people predicting all three actors from it and that seems like a real risk, especially the young man. (Slap the stud is a thing with AMPAS. That's why it was so amazing that Timothee Chalamet ever got nominated at all.) The Academy has already long proven they're not Todd Haynes fans. They usually short-change his films. I agree that Emma Stone seems to be the favorite here but I guess it depends on how big the hype for The Color Purple gets. There's the "injustice" aspect to the original's first Oscar shutout. (It lost all 10 Oscars and LOTS of people understood Whoopi Goldberg won for 'Ghost' to makeup for 'The Color Purple' loss.) Critics also may champion Lily Gladstone and waltz her to an unexpected win. She is quiet and steady but I believe a really strong option. Maestro looks like it will be a major Oscar movie. I expect Bradley Cooper to win Best Actor. It would be nice if Carey Mulligan got the makeup win for losing 'Promising Young Woman' but I'm not sure if she's super well-liked, in general. They had two perfect opportunities to reward her and chose others. Margot Robbie would be that fun cool nomination that is a little weird but I think journalist hype wants it more than it is actually likely. It's maybe too genre and it reminds me a little bit of when people heavily predicted Amy Adams for Enchanted. I think the race is between two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Lily Gladstone Emma Stone Carey Mulligan Sandra Huller Fantasia Barrino Up next: Annette Bening Anyway, I loved your video and conversational style.

@kandakeedits1546

8 ай бұрын

Same. I strongly disagreed with this as well. As much as I didn't find the film to be great (no fault of the actors involved), I felt that Annette did the best she could do with the role and was clearly the lead, moving the narrative along. This story did not rest upon what was going on with her bestie. In fact, it would've been perfectly fine if we saw less of her because that character was not at the center of the overall message and purpose of the film. Like her or not, Diana Nyad is a badass and this film was all about putting her relentless determination on full display. No matter how often she failed, she persevered.

@kandakeedits1546

8 ай бұрын

And I also agree that this will likely be a battle of the Stones (love Emma, but rooting for Lily). My 5 is nearly the same but with Sandra above Carey and the 5th spot being a battle between Margot, Fantasia, and Annette (they may split up nominations throughout the various award ceremonies).

@hopsfd

8 ай бұрын

A Lily Gladstone win would not be unexpected though. According to a lot of people she is the favorite. That being said I'm rooting for Emma.

@7DAYS_ATSEA

8 ай бұрын

oh ok@@hopsfd

@7DAYS_ATSEA

8 ай бұрын

Fully agree, I think a lot of people focus on Jodie Foster because Annette Bening doesn't ever play likable characters@@kandakeedits1546

Annette Bening is not unlikable! She is funny and I was fine with her. I just do not get that narrative.

@OscarFilmForecast

7 ай бұрын

I love Annette Bening, but I can see why some find her character in Nyad annoying. She can be hardheaded and stubborn at times

@tonyg76

7 ай бұрын

@@OscarFilmForecast Stubborn or persistent? I have been called stubborn before when really I have been persistent. Fine line between the two.

Oscars voters not going to nominate people of color actor & actress just because y,all want them too.

@animojireviews4678

8 ай бұрын

When did they say that?

@dreeee00

8 ай бұрын

All the pros and cons they listed to inform their opinion on who ended up in their current predictions and this is your takeaway? Lol

@JafarWade1970

8 ай бұрын

There's that subtle racism showing! An actor who happens to be black isn't worthy simply because of his or her race!

Sandra Hueller is taking this home

@OscarFilmForecast

8 ай бұрын

Dying to see her performance, can’t wait!