Wow! I was blown away yesterday when I watch this. Very cool!

I watched this live yesterday and was blown away by what I saw. If he runs like that on a consistent basis maybe we will see that long overdue Triple Crown winner.

Great call!

Impressive win and probably the Derby favorite. He definitely runs real close to the pace which may be a drawback if the early fractions are rapid. As far as being unraced at two years old, we're talking about less than three weeks as he made his debut on January 16, 2012. If he can lay off the pace, being third or fourth until the far turn, Baffert has a great shot being in the winner's circle this Saturday.

I like I'll have another too. The only reason I like Bodemeister more is I had a dream that the horse that won the Arkansas Derby would win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness :)

I like your input on these videos, especially realizing that the most impressive horses could run themselves into the ground dueling each other. I loved Proud Citizen, he ran the 2002 TC races great but WTDW definitely didn't look as dominating as one would like, especially not as much as Animal Kingdom in the same race last year. If the pace is as insane as you suggest, I bet that sets up for Gemologist.

Impressive is almost an understatement to describe Bodemeister's performance in the Arkansas Derby. IMO, this is by far the most singularly impressive performance I've seen so far by any 3yr.old in any Kentucky Derby prep race. The further Bodemeister went in this race, the better he looked. I have no doubt he could've stayed another 1/8 mile standing on his head. Still think that Gemologist and Rags will take a lot of beating at CD. But if he runs this well, you'd have to think he's got a shot.

and i want to thank BB for running BODIE in preakness 2 wks after k/d instead of sitting him out waiting for belmont it was a nice win for me and jacked up my yrly profit fig a good bit more thanks BOB appreciate it

I'm picturing a speed duel between him and Hansen in the Derby. Should be a great one!

I wish everyone the best of luck, should be one heck of a race, I'm off to NEW YORK, talk to you guys after the race.

I agree with you morzloks. Impressive numbers...

@205seeme i like the horse you mentioned and even though he is not my 2nd horse after union rags he has good shot to hit tri/supf spot but my only concern this saturday is the first two spots win and exacta box that's it!

Howe Great is a graded stakes winning colt with a 6-4-1-0 and earnings $234,000 for its career; the horse's 2012 record is 3-2-0-0 with earnings of $172,500 year to date. Howe Great appears to be on track to be one of the best three year old turf horses in the country which in fact would make it one of the top three year old horses; at racecourses with both a turf track and another on a different surface (dirt or synthetic) nearly half the races are now run on grass.

Great Win

This is the real last time Phantom Horse in the Road to 2012 KD. 12 flat in the last furlong. Speed and resistence. Extraordinary condition to the 2000 meters. Great rival for Union Rags.

Bodemeister topped Union Rags 'high bar' workout time today, April 29) and on a sloppy track to boot. He's a big guy with a long reach. He certainly has a great shot at winning the KD. I'm waiting to see what kind of workouts Take Charge Indy has. I was always partial to one of his ancestors, A.P. Indy. He won't work until Tuesday, I think they said on DRF site.

West coast tracks in general are known for being faster than their eastern counterparts, so only going by the time of a race doesn't always indicate how good of a horse you have. Eastern tracks are known to be deeper and heavy, thus they produce slower times (most of the time). a 1:47 at Santa Anita may equal 1:49 or 1:50 or some such number in the east (aqueduct). Oaklawn is likely in the middle there.

Bodemeister sure had a lot left in the stretch. Good sign for the KD. Won't make any money on him unless you bet a ton, but he sure has a good shot at it. I also like "I'll Have Another" and "Take Charge Indy." The jockeys may be what makes the real difference in the huge KD field. Lot of good horses.

There's no question IHA is the real deal, I pounded the top two in an exacta and had a sizable trifecta ticket with all three CAL horses. IHA and Bode ran superb races and went away from everyone. IHA has a real chance at the triple crown, I hope he does it, he's a sensational horse.

What I've seen in this year's preps is encouraging. 2011's crop of 3 year olds was terrible, it didn't look like many at all could even make a go at 1-1/4 mile let alone put down a good time. I feared for the future of US racing. Union Rags, Gemologist, Dullahan, Hansen, Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, Howe Great, Went the Day Well, El Padrino, etc., the class of 2012 is looking much better. Let's hope we'll get some really good ones that continue on as 4 year olds.

what fascinating stuff! how does this pertain to the 2012 KD?

I am a handicapper myself and use several forms of criteria. I am well versed on all these things The bottom line is he hasn't won beyond a mile and a 16th. Until he does no one can say with certainty he's an elite horse. Maybe as a two year old he was but he has a lot to prove at three. I honestly think you're letting your emotion and sentiment for the horse cloud your reasoning.

Bodemeister looked like the real deal to me also. Though this year's Derby and Triple Crown series looks wide open, it looks any one of 8 or 9 of these can win. Bodemeister, Union Rags, Gemologist, Alpha,Creative Cause I'll Have Another,Dullahan,Hansen

it was the 5th slowest time in the last 21 years. the 4 slower times were run by ruler on ice, drosselmeyer, commendable, thunder gulch.

Please read my original reply to heartofalion77, I commented on the quality of this years US 3 year old class; I believe that is what heartofalion77 and i were discussing rather than specific candidates for the Kentucky Derby. Mr. Barry Irwin has been saying Went the Day Well was probably Team Valor's Derby horse and Howe Great was being looked at as a grass runner. However Howe Great is a good horse, and considering how bad last year's crop was it is a good sign for US racing.

I get your point somewhat, but not fully.Dream Ahead has a Euro pedigree by Diktat. Lammtarra by Nijinsky X Blushing Groom. Giants Causeway(Storm Cat had success everywhere in the world),D.Brave(Lyphard),Peintre Celebre(Nureyev) all have Euro peds. Sadler's Wells(Northern Dancer X Hail To Reason),Danehill(Danzig X Ribot),Danzig all had Euro peds with success worldwide.While S.S.(Halo-Hail To Reason),Northern Taste(N.Dancer),Southern Halo(Halo X N.Dancer X SeaBird) all had success mainly isolated

Congrats! This was my 2nd time placing a wager in a horse race, so I don't fully understand the more exotic bets. I had a trifecta bet going, but in the wrong order. I did not expect Creative Cause to be that far behind... 9 whole lengths?? If IHA can pull off what he always does in the Belmont, I think we'll have something to celebrate that day. He ran his hardest race, so they need to give him his rest.

You are a reasonably polite person; thanks for the reply. Hearto seems over-zealous....

Also, the average winning beyer for a kentucky derby winner is 107-108 range. So when formulating an opinion I myself try and look at which horses can run such a number. When looking at that (and of course that's ONLY one handicapping tool) that does narrow it down a bit. Horses can certainly jump up 8-10 points but beyond that it gets rather difficult to do.

Dullahan is a great horse too. He's got the stamina, so I have to think about it. I haven't seen a triple crown winner either, but if IHA had to lose, it would be to Dullahan because he's from Des Moines, which is my fiance's hometown. ;) But deep down, I would be really bummed. I might make it to Belmont Park for my first horse race because I'll so happen to be in NY around that time...

damn.. that is HARSH! I feel for you though.. the countless times that I was looking at that 20/1 shot long and hard and didn't bet him.. anyways, yea, I've watched some of DNB's races and it looks like he shows a lot of heart. He's a multiple graded stakes winner but idk why he hasn't got my attention. He might be that one horse that no one suspects of winning. yea, and please fill me in if you find anything more about this horse. thanks.

That really sucks. I'm sorry you lost your wager. It's nice though to see that you still believe in the horse. This was my first bet ever in any horse race, so I'd I have fun with it. I studied the horses the night before and after watching I'll Have Another's previous race in the Santa Anita Derby, I knew he was made for the Kentucky Derby. I think because I'm an equestrian rider, I have the horse sense which helped. And luck, of course. All the horses are incredibly talented though...

Very true.

His speed was rationed out far better in the preakness, thus he didn't collapse his final eighth as he did in the derby. He ran a great race for sure in the derby, but his performance in the preakness from start to finish was better. Bode didn't comeback so to speak, IHA caught him and BOTH were miles ahead of everyone.

Bodemeister was a late-bloomer. ;) He looks great!

I agree with you in some aspects, this horse could use some more experience. And its not like hes ging to run back to this race next time out. So who is your pick for the derby?

Exactly, if you went through the comments and looked, you would know. I responded to a comment that was made that "Howe Great" is in the same sentence with Bodemeister,Gemologist,Union Rags,Ill Have Another,Creative Cause,Dullahan,Hansen,El Padrino,etc, and I responded by saying that he isn't in the same sentence with these horses on dirt or synthetic. Unfortunately, here in the USA, turf racing means very little, though a lot of synth racing is similar to turf racing. Got it?

If Bode would have run those fractions that he ran in the derby in the preakness, he may very well have backed up. The pimlico surface was playing kinda slow that week if you remember and was very tiring. Therefore going ridiculous fractions like that very well could equate to him staggering to the wire.

I agree, Smith should have approached the race as if Trinni wasn't in it. If he just sat a few lengths behind the sprinter he very likely wins. Bode was the best horse IMO but I'll have another got the better trip and the better ride. He's a very good horse in his own right.

@mik655 also the horse you like paynter is not ready for prime time yet he should set the pace but will tire to be off the board when they cross the wire

ready to put him at the top of the list yet yes your right some horses seem to always find a way to get into trouble have constant bad luck i feel rags can and will overcome this and i do feel he will explode we have to wait and see

This race right here is why I think he lost the Derby. He was in the lead inside the final furlong and tired; he didn't need to be pushed to this large of a winning margin. I'm not sure Bodemeister can handle longer distances, but he had a sharp run in the Derby, and I think he *may* have been able to hold on had the jockey saved him in this race. Better to win by a few in this race and nose out I'll Have Another in the Derby than to be so impressive here and fall short at Churchill.

I think i have my derby favorite!

Bodemeister was likely only 50% for his San Felipe start, and yet Creative Cause could barely get the job done. Bode has since improved sharply. In a match race, against Bode, Union Rags would try one of his sweeping surges. It would not avail him, at any distance. As for the Kentucky Derby, we'll learn soon enough.

I sort of agree with your point about breeding. Because breeders are obsessed with producing horses from certain "champion" bloodlines-- there are only so many Triple Crown Winners etc, it results in in-breeding. As we've seen, in-breeding creates many problems and weaker horses that just break down, like we've seen with Barbardo. Maybe if owners start looking outside of pedigree and more on training or just how the horse runs, horse racing people may be in for a surprise.

I watched each of these races several times and while I think this crop of three year olds has talent and is deep I only see one horse here that is a POTENTIAL stand out. If Bode doesn't win then an argument could be made for anyone of 10 other horses. UR didn't impress me all that much in the FLA Derby, though I do think JL waited much too long. But UR's numbers haven't been all that impressive beyer wise. That's certainly not the only variable in the equation, but it is one to consider.

@LVCrocky the Belmont. Good going there. I'll be sure to listen to your clearly very astute picks in the future. But maybe I'll hold off on doing that until after your horse gets walloped in the Belmont.

This is true, good point.

Dullahan is gonna have his way with IHA in the Belmont. It sucks too because I haven't seen a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime

another reason why I pointed out the SA Derby is because, IHA had a very strong performance against a good horse in Creative Cause who has beaten Bodemeister. IHA has won all of his duels, and that's what could make a Triple Crown Winner (Bode seems to fade out in duels.) My trifecta pick for the Preakness was 9-7-6. Not getting why IHA was always underrated...

YAY TEAM BODEMEISTER!

@mik655 i will be backing the right horse for the belmont for all the reasons i prev mentioned

Done deal here too. Bodemeister !!!

And you're right, he's no Man o War.

As far as the time goes, yeah if it was indeed playing slow then the time isn't as important as I initially thought. Let's see what the beyer comes back as.

if the track is still playing to speed as it is now im gonna re-think things. showed you yesterday how to lose by a nose and still make a nice profit. that was a helluva race but shack doesn't hang on without the speed bias....wish bode (empire maker) was running with track being so kind to front runners.

Again, that's true. If the Oaklawn & Santa Anita tracks are labeled as "fast", then you can reasonably assume that they could run the same time. Again, IHA had a worthy opponent in Creative Cause which was a major oversight. Bode didn't have any duels in his race, so the horses in the back pretty much gave up and weren't real Triple Crown contenders. My hat off's to Bode in the Preakness though. He gave IHA a run for his money. Still a super horse. Wanted to see him in the Belmont. Oh well.

I'm just trying to figure out who's going to win the K/Derby......everyone says Union Rags but I haven't yet found any of UR's 2012 races to view/evaluate.

and if the races goes as i feel it will look out both my horses flying in the stretch i still feel rags wins in an eyepopping victory but my 2nd which i feel the race will set up as well look out it will be a dandy and again i'm looking for a multi dimes score!

as a heartbroken Smarty jones fan i might just go with IHA. im gonna look hard at paynter, my only drawback is he's against the big boys now...not the derby trial...but BB knows what he's doing...bode is the son of a belmont winner and his speed plays right to the track (as of now)...so something might be going on there.

favorite trick had a lot of success as a 2 yr old also, what did he do at age three? Sometimes horses don't evolve all that much, the jury is still out on UR. He MAY improve, then again maybe he won't. It's best to see him actually win beyond a mile and a 16th.

@mik655 the thing with mike smith that g. stevens talked about was if smith goes over to cut off rail the #4 horse atigun goes by him smith said after race he didn't see UR behing him bottom line i was fortunate as was UR that he had that opening to get up at hte wire and what's crazy is UR prev never liked racing inside even though i do love the horse i admitt he still needs to improve to get to where i think he can a rested and healthy BODE will be real tough as we move on hope theyare sound

The prep races and the Triple Crown races are hard and very demanding on a horse.I am glad that Bode will get his rest. His health always comes first. He sure loves to run though. Call me crazy, I think he could have had some "horse therapy" to calm him down and save his energies before the big races. Mike Smith did a good job adjusting for the Preakness though... IHA worked his hardest race. I hope I'll Have Another will get his rest to be healthy and strong for the most demanding race yet.

How is "Howe Great" in with any of these other horses? At least on dirt and synthetic surfaces.

what does this have to do with Bodemeister, and KD?

I don't know who i like yet, but I have had a lot of luck at the derby the last 2 years. This year I think I'm going to be boxing a lot of Hansen/Union Rags/Gemologist.

I agree the Belmont isn't very likely to be a fast pace, thus deep closers generally get compromised. Monarchos comes to mind, although Victory Gallup did win it. I STILL THINK IHA HAS A GOOD SHOT AS LONG AS THE TRACK IS DRY. If not who knows, I gotta see which horses are mudders. It wouldn't surprise me if the tri ends up being a combination of IHA over Dullahan and UR. But IMO that's the order it comes in. We'll see what happens.

yes we agree to disagree BB was being a gentleman he's a class act and i don't know if he feels he made a mistake or not with BODE only he knows

is this relevent to the 2012 KD?

Yes, and I can't think why -- with SO MUCH on the line (that being what I, at least, regarded a good chance at a Triple Crown championship -- MORE CARE was not used, in rationing BODEMEISTER's energies, both here, as you point out, and especially in the Kentukcy Derby. When a deliberately thoughtful "waiting game" was called for, in quickly positioning Bode from the gate -- as Mike Smith accomplished -- but then also by "triple-thinking" Trinniberg's jock, so the sprinter would take the /b/a/i/t

@mik655 thanks but no thanks UR the way clen trip no mishaps he aint getting beat he will make his explosive move ? is at what point in the race and when he's in front down the stretch at big sandy can he maintain it to the wire i say YES! i have an idea of how this race may unfold but i aint giving the other barns any ideas johnny v. will know what to do prev belmont stakes winner UR already won over the oval big edges sa you should know as a handicapper

what is a moran?

I disagree with Stevens, Atigun wasn't along side Paynter and was starting to become one paced. Smith still had some momentum and could have held him at bay. Smith just didn't see UR coming and if he did, the result may have been different. It's a credit though to JV and UR for taking full advantage. And I agree Bode will be tough as will Paynter with more seasoning.

I cut back my wager as well because clearly the dynamics of the race changed with IHA being out. You cut back because you didn't get the value u wanted and I cut back because IMO the race became a little less predictable.

Initially I thought Dull was his biggest threat, but after looking at it a bit more I'd say Paynter is. BB would sure like to get revenge on him.

I don't think anyone here can conclusively say who's gonna win. We all have opinions, insight and varying degrees of handicapping knowledge. When you factor in pedigree, running style, post position, beyers, tomlinson numbers, foundation ,horses that like the track, trainers, ect, you legitimately see half the field having a shot. I would say it's better to be forwardly placed early on (due to the large field). You're far less likely to encounter traffic issues.

wheel the show spot in the tri and hope for something big to sneak in.

I've had luck not over betting on derby day. Like last year, I boxed Nehro to Animal Kingdom, Midnight Interlude, and Soldat and I only bet like $6. and came out with really good money. The year before THAT I had bet like $40- $20 in tri's and $20 in ex's and I had the $2 exacta twice. with Super Saver and Ice Box. This year I might take $40 again and handicap the race.

@LVCrocky Saratoga sure was easier to handicap when bailey and Stevens were riding ....sold my bar.

@duquettebeats6312

7 жыл бұрын

bmannn63 lol

@mik655 i just want to let you know now that we have a more clearer picture specific with UR now is when i really focus on bsf and i agree with you UR has not advanced his #'s like i thought he would now bad rides and bad trips do effect the bsf but what i see is his #'s are what they are and i can't see him beating BODIE down the road if both are at full strength he would have to improve and yes the belmont was a weak field with IHA scratched and BODIE not in it i do use bsf on daily basis

@LVCrocky much money as you by the time the year is out, because I don't bet. I just pick winners. (Yeah. Winners. I don't get obsessed with one horse I wish could be better than he is. I pick winners). And I'm glad to hear that UR's 6 1/2 furlong and 5 furlong races from when he was a 2yo are some of the reasons you're using to back up his apparent mile and a half prowess. Because him getting tired and drifting out while winning those races is CERTAINLY a good indicator of him winning

You can feel UR will explode all you want, and maybe he will. But the fact of the matter is he hasn't done so. Again his numbers don't indicate anything of the kind. Bode on the other hand set an unfathomable pace and IMO was the best horse on the day. I'll have another did have the dream trip, but to his credit his tactical speed and the excellent ride he was given afforded him the victory. I think with Fed BIZ and Algorithms sidelined Bode and I'll have another are the class of the crop.

The best horse, by far, had his Kentucky derby (& Triple Crown) sqaundered, as a result of a sub-optimal rifde by Mike smith; an excellent, thoughtful reinsman who nevertheless mised his cue, entering the turn). There was no way Bodemeister, good as he is, should have been expected to Outsprint The Sprinter. ...who was coming bck to him, if only he'd waited. Had Smith let Trini pass, & simply stalked from 4-5 lengths back, Bodemeister has more than enough, late, to thwart I'll Have Another

Bode was phenomenal but clearly went too fast early. That was crazy as far as fractions go. Trinniberg pressured him enough to cost him late. Give credit to I'll have another, he ran a great race, but Bode really carved up ridiculous fractions. Only a superhorse holds on there, and truthfully he almost did. And oh yeah, Union Rags who?

One of the West Coast horses WILL take the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

I know this much, in his three biggest races he's lost each time. I also know there are many variables to consider when assessing a horses chances. Beyers are only part of that equation. Running style, pedigree, recent form, coming off layoffs, going a further route of ground, track condition etc should all be factored in. In UR's case the majority of his success was as a 2 yr old, that's a fact. IHA has already proven himself in three successive grade 1 outings as a 3 yr old.

Yeah, that was my thought too, as he pulled away in the stretch. I think he, Creative Cause, and I'll Have Another are all legit threats.

Bodemeister leads into the stretch as Alpha takes up the chase.......box.

@jayar709 i agree bodemeister is a very good horse just like pletcher's gem that won the wood is down the road may both turn into great race horses but i'm not using either one in this year's derby to recap huge win bet on UNION RAGS banging exacta with rags on top with my 2nd horse then reversing exacta just in case my 2nd horse upsets rags either way looking for multi dimes score and i truely am one of the best thoroughbred/sports handicappers in the nation! the master of the big play!

We'll see but I wouldn't be too sure of that. IHA has a running style and pedigree tailor made for a race like the Belmont. Dullahan IMO is (at least initially looking at the possible field) a viable alternative. I still think he's better on turf. Went the day well closed in the derby also but was very bad in the preakness. Dullahans breeding is even more of a turf horse. We'll see.

If you base PP's and translate it to the belmont and factor in IHA's pedigree he had a VERY solid chance to win. In any case a 96 BSF is sub par for grade one horses, and that's exactly why I don't think UR would match up well against the best 3 yr olds.

IN UR's three biggest races he's 0 for 3, yet people still hype him. I think he's a good horse but I can't believe how some view him as the next big thing. Let him prove it first. So far he's let everyone down. Well, except people like myself who weren't in awe of him from the beginning. Maybe he'll turn it around, then again maybe he's a grade 2 caliber colt.

With the defection of I'll have another it should be a 5-9 or 9-5 with the 1, 3, 2. I think it comes down to Paynter and Dullahan with Street life as the mid range long shot play. Union rags may hit the board now that IHA is out,. So I like 5-9 with 5-9 with 1,23 and 5,9 with 1,2,3 with 5,9 in trifecta's.

I do not think it is a question of breeding; strength is strength whatever the surface, it is a question of emphasis in training. What do Dream Ahead, Sakhee, Henrythenavigator, Giant's Causeway, Dancing Brave, Lammtarra, Peintre Celebre, and many other European horse have in common? They all came from Kentucky. If breeding for grass was an overwhelming factor in producing grass winners, then neither Sunday Silence (Japan) or Sadler's Wells (UK, IRE, FRA) would have had the effect they had.

As far as horses ''flying'' in the stretch, I see very few here who have an explosive turn of foot. Bode does, but very few others do (at least on dirt). A lot of these horses seem like plodders who will try to grind you down.

true. That's what everyone said about Seattle Slew - that he wasn't 'perfectly bred'. But he won! I'm just suprised, because wasn't IHA's performance considered 'inconsistent' before KDerby (others had better win records?) Oh well - any given Saturday (LOL). Hey, Secretariat lost Wood Mem......

how did he run the half in 46.55 and still open up to win by 9 lengths then? Exactly, this horse has ran only 2 races since breaking his maiden; 2nd to Creative Cause and now a huge win here in this race, this horse is still young and improving noone really has no idea what he really is capable of...

..my early pick is Brown Almighty

It's relevant in that it got me thinking that maybe horse racing should stop obsessing so much over pedigree. You can't get any better than Bodemeister's pedigree with Dr. Fager, Bold Ruler, the great Secretariat, Seattle Slew, A.P. Indy and Empire Maker in his bloodline. He's built very well and has power. I don't recognize the horses in I'll Have Another's pedigree except for Alydar. I'll Have Another was picked up not by looking at his pedigree papers but because of how he ran.

He's still a powerful horse, regardless... I think if he was more relaxed at running, he could have done more.