Typically British weather for a Bank Holiday - mixed and hard to predict!

I think we just have to embrace and enjoy the rain, and then when the sun comes out that's a bonus! 😅

What a surprise. I hate the UK climate most of the time.

If I was a weather forecaster in the UK, these are the 3 lines I would use in Summer @07:33

As always, thanks Alex. Question for you, compared to, say, 20 years ago how much more accurate (or confidence in) has a 10 day forecast become?

@matthughes6474

14 күн бұрын

Not a complete answer but I was told that, at the time of the Fastnet Storm in 1979, the confidence in the two day forecast was about the same as for the seven day forecast now. Firstly, that was from a journalist and, secondly, development is not linear, but if it is true then it's a 350% improvement in 45 years. So the last ten years would see about an 80% improvement. That's a very unscientific analysis 🙂

Makes sense, Spring is always messy. I think we forget we are geographically stuck out in the Atlantic ocean storm conveyor belt most of the time.

A mixed forecast??? does that mean we get several different kinds of rain then?

Thanks once again Alex!

I wonder if we could have a psychologist in the forecast? Her data would be perceived weather; anecdotal weather and in particular reports from people who work and play close to the weather. My interest here is the discrepancy between what your fine science tells us and what we feel about the trend. For example us growers here in east anglia know it has been generally wet from Autumn 2023 and it isn’t apparently discussed much at the MetOffice; how correct is our perception compared to the science? Why is there discrepancy? are we just depressed? Is weather at the wrong time in the growing season worse then bad weather when it matters little? Just thinking

Had to rebook a trip to Skomer island tomorrow due to having a bad cold, certainly looks like it may have been a fortuitous outcome. South West Wales is a total washout tomorrow! This 10 day trend sadly (and obviously) doesn't cover the South West Wales forecast for _next_ Thursday (rebooked for then), but I'm working on the theory it couldn't get much worse ... could it? 😬

@markrichards7164

14 күн бұрын

I don’t make plans ahead these days. Hope to have a couple of days away next week for a tandem skydive.

Today in the East Midlands it was very misty until about 9.30am then it was cloudy until 12 noon then sunny and warm until 1.30 then dark clouds then sunny and warm from about 4pm 🙈 what kind of nonsense is that for May Day 🤬🤬🤬

Thanks for the detailed forecast Alex

10 day trend, even the computers don't agree with each other on UK weather.

10 day out look should be interesting.

I knew as soon as I watched this that the North-East of England would be generally be taped off from the nice high temperatures... Seems to be always the case... For the last YEAR nearly! :D

Thanks

Nice weather from 2nd week of May? I'll believe it when I see it. Weather in South east this year, so far has been pants and boring😢

Wind today from from the north in central Scotland 🥴🥴🥴

Oh well if it’s nice it’s an added bonus if not there’s plenty of films on the fire stick 😂

Ai seems to be a big thing at the moment, does Ai play any part in the weather models that you use? - love watching the Deep Dives and 10 Day Trend, Thank you to everyone involved at the Met Office. 👍😁👏

So, the southwest has been brutalised with a powerful south shifted jet over the last 6 months and now gets done by a flabby, weak and meandering May jet. Will it ever end?!

Weak, flabby, low, low confidence and unpredictable. Sounds like he's talking about my brain.

So usual average weather then.

Met office's uncertainty principle.

How often do these 10 trends turn out to be correct

@ruperthiggins7358

14 күн бұрын

I don't think 'correct' is the right category for these 10-day forecasts in the same way it might be for a 24-hour forecast. As Alex said, every forecast has a probability attached to it, which gives the likelihood of the trend (or not).

@Mykst

14 күн бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

Yeah but you are dealing with the environment

Yay. The Dalmatian plot is back! ⚫️ ⚫️ ⚫️

Is the title a weather report?, or have you hacked my recent physical exam.

We hear all the time about the various computer models and their outputs, but does anybody actually do a manual forecast these days, or at least look at the computer outputs and make manual modifications?

Truth is you haven't got a clue, computer says ?

@Mykst

14 күн бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

@TrancetasticWilza

14 күн бұрын

Let me guess... look out the window?

@jimdowney91

14 күн бұрын

I love the way people think forecasting is easy especially as the UK and Ireland are Islands in the Atlantic Ocean..

@Smiffy-72

14 күн бұрын

More of a clue than you I would of thought 😊

@andybarton234

14 күн бұрын

Blooming’ chaos theory….

The jet stream is supposed to be a stream. That's not a stream.... It's like gymnast with ribbons. It's all over the place. Climate collapse incoming.

Genius. You spent 11 minutes telling us absolutely nothing.

@Mykst

14 күн бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

@vv7611

14 күн бұрын

Harsh

@TheFlyingHaggis

13 күн бұрын

It's not their fault that spring has been miserable.

@davewright9313

13 күн бұрын

I've travelled around the world and Alex is one of the best forecasters there is.

@garycwikla6385

13 күн бұрын

@@davewright9313 I’m not knocking the presenter, I’m just saying that it was long winded (pardon the pun) to give us no information.

Gibberish 🙄

@Mykst

14 күн бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.